Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Patrick Zahraj, while the market favors Karl Poling (66%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sioux Falls: Karl Poling vs Patrick Zahraj

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Patrick Zahraj (70%) · Patrick Zahraj at 35¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2

Karl Poling66¢Patrick Zahraj34¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Patrick Zahraj

Consensus Traders

Patrick Zahraj 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$209.84

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 34.5¢

-33% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralPatrick Zahraj at 35%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patrick Zahraj

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Karl Poling 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Karl Poling66%

Patrick Zahraj35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Patrick Zahraj7 traders

Total Value$636.94

Total Shares1,535

Combined PnL-$209.94

Karl Poling3 traders

Total Value$34.82

Total Shares62

Combined PnL+$0.1

Patrick Zahraj — 70%Karl Poling — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Karl Polingavg 44¢	$480.44	$454.55	-$25.89	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
└ Karl Poling leg	Karl Polingavg 44¢	$364.76	$360.62	-$4.14
└ Patrick Zahraj leg	Patrick Zahrajavg 69.6¢	$115.68	$93.93	-$21.75
EF efntrickCTR	Patrick Zahrajavg 48.6¢	$586.27	$374.7	-$211.57	48% 3570-3818 (7388)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Patrick Zahrajavg 72.4¢	$146.34	$148.39	+$2.05	54% 15474-12956 (28430)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Patrick Zahrajavg 52.5¢	$88.19	$86.54	-$1.65	50% 17407-17735 (35142)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Karl Polingavg 50¢	$25	$26.75	+$1.75	62% 1670-1044 (2714)
RN1CTR<$100	Patrick Zahrajavg 42¢	$17.33	$16.92	-$0.41	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
TRCM<$100	Karl Polingavg 53¢	$8.94	$7.21	-$1.73	56% 3878-3105 (6983)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Patrick Zahrajavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.75	+$0.15	60% 3813-2585 (6398)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Patrick Zahrajavg 50.4¢	$3.04	$4.5	+$1.46	55% 2163-1776 (3939)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Patrick Zahrajavg 54.7¢	$5.65	$1.15	+$0.03	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Karl Polingavg 44¢	$0.79	$0.87	+$0.08	56% 24547-18914 (43461)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Karl Poling

Invested

$480.44

Value

$454.55

PnL

-$25.89

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

Both legs:

Karl Poling$364.7644¢-$4.14

Patrick Zahraj$115.6869.6¢-$21.75

efntrickCTR

Patrick Zahraj

Invested

$586.27

Value

$374.7

PnL

-$211.57

Record

48%

3570-3818 (7388)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Patrick Zahraj

Invested

$146.34

Value

$148.39

PnL

+$2.05

Record

54%

15474-12956 (28430)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Patrick Zahraj

Invested

$88.19

Value

$86.54

PnL

-$1.65

Record

50%

17407-17735 (35142)

0x1111111111<$100

Karl Poling

Invested

$25

Value

$26.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

62%

1670-1044 (2714)

RN1CTR<$100

Patrick Zahraj

Invested

$17.33

Value

$16.92

PnL

-$0.41

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

TRCM<$100

Karl Poling

Invested

$8.94

Value

$7.21

PnL

-$1.73

Record

56%

3878-3105 (6983)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Patrick Zahraj

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

60%

3813-2585 (6398)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Patrick Zahraj

Invested

$3.04

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$1.46

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Patrick Zahraj

Invested

$5.65

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Karl Poling

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.87

PnL

+$0.08

Record

56%

24547-18914 (43461)

Research grade

NeutralPatrick Zahraj at 35%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Patrick Zahraj

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Karl Poling 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patrick Zahraj wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.