Sioux Falls: Karl Poling vs Maxwell Exsted
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Karl Poling (100%) · Karl Poling at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Karl Poling
4
Karl Poling 100%
$1.3K
$147.05
88.5¢ → 97¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralKarl Poling at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thestingsnake | Karl Polingavg 84.8¢ | $513.05 | $586.85 | +$91.65 | 60% 3538-2405 (5943) |
EF efntrick | Karl Polingavg 90¢ | $527.55 | $567.9 | +$57.16 | 48% 3466-3730 (7196) |
LO looppau | Karl Polingavg 99.9¢ | $139.58 | $135.53 | -$4.05 | 99% 6822-38 (6860) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Karl Polingavg 76.8¢ | $13.52 | $15.81 | +$2.29 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
Invested
$513.05
Value
$586.85
PnL
+$91.65
Record
60%
3538-2405 (5943)
Invested
$527.55
Value
$567.9
PnL
+$57.16
Record
48%
3466-3730 (7196)
Invested
$139.58
Value
$135.53
PnL
-$4.05
Record
99%
6822-38 (6860)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.52
Value
$15.81
PnL
+$2.29
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.