Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Egor Pleshivtsev, while the market favors Dominik Palan (74%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ningbo: Egor Pleshivtsev vs Dominik Palan

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Egor Pleshivtsev (40%) · Egor Pleshivtsev at 26¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1

Egor Pleshivtsev26¢Dominik Palan74¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Egor Pleshivtsev

Consensus Traders

Egor Pleshivtsev 40%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$67.15

Smart Money Entry

35.3¢ → 26¢

-26% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidEgor Pleshivtsev at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Egor Pleshivtsev

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Dominik Palan 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Egor Pleshivtsev26%

Dominik Palan74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Egor Pleshivtsev4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,608

Combined PnL+$105.41

Dominik Palan6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,770

Combined PnL-$38.25

Egor Pleshivtsev — 40%Dominik Palan — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA Bagwell306CTR	Egor Pleshivtsevavg 40.3¢	$847	$955.5	+$108.5	68% 3146-1513 (4659)
tradecraft	Dominik Palanavg 60¢	$600	$545	-$55	52% 5490-5090 (10580)
EF efntrickCTR	Egor Pleshivtsevavg 23.5¢	$260.99	$244.72	-$16.27	48% 3439-3707 (7146)
OM omnibus-076daa	Dominik Palanavg 75¢	$208.22	$206.83	-$1.39	59% 13747-9558 (23305)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Egor Pleshivtsevavg 42.1¢	$160.15	$173.26	+$13.11	65% 12541-6659 (19200)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Dominik Palanavg 76¢	$136.02	$136.02	+$0	53% 2356-2096 (4452)
BI BillBenter2026	Dominik Palanavg 68.6¢	$111.41	$126.11	+$14.7	58% 16089-11745 (27834)
TRCM<$100	Dominik Palanavg 60.4¢	$90.05	$93.97	+$3.92	57% 3637-2689 (6326)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Egor Pleshivtsevavg 45¢	$6.75	$6.83	+$0.08	55% 6317-5068 (11385)
PA pauleta23<$100	Dominik Palanavg 73¢	$3.55	$3.06	-$0.49	71% 17316-6997 (24313)

Bagwell306CTR

Egor Pleshivtsev

Invested

$847

Value

$955.5

PnL

+$108.5

Record

68%

3146-1513 (4659)

tradecraft

Dominik Palan

Invested

$600

Value

$545

PnL

-$55

Record

52%

5490-5090 (10580)

efntrickCTR

Egor Pleshivtsev

Invested

$260.99

Value

$244.72

PnL

-$16.27

Record

48%

3439-3707 (7146)

omnibus-076daa

Dominik Palan

Invested

$208.22

Value

$206.83

PnL

-$1.39

Record

59%

13747-9558 (23305)

LilybaeumCTR

Egor Pleshivtsev

Invested

$160.15

Value

$173.26

PnL

+$13.11

Record

65%

12541-6659 (19200)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Dominik Palan

Invested

$136.02

Value

$136.02

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2356-2096 (4452)

BillBenter2026

Dominik Palan

Invested

$111.41

Value

$126.11

PnL

+$14.7

Record

58%

16089-11745 (27834)

TRCM<$100

Dominik Palan

Invested

$90.05

Value

$93.97

PnL

+$3.92

Record

57%

3637-2689 (6326)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Egor Pleshivtsev

Invested

$6.75

Value

$6.83

PnL

+$0.08

Record

55%

6317-5068 (11385)

pauleta23<$100

Dominik Palan

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.06

PnL

-$0.49

Record

71%

17316-6997 (24313)

Research grade

AvoidEgor Pleshivtsev at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Egor Pleshivtsev

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Dominik Palan 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Egor Pleshivtsev wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.