Guayaquil: Mateo Del Pino vs Wilson Leite

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Mateo Del Pino (67%) · Mateo Del Pino at 100¢ · $112K held · ends Nov 1

Mateo Del Pino>99¢Wilson Leite<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mateo Del Pino

Consensus Traders

Mateo Del Pino 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$111.7K

Combined PnL

$-3.1K

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 99.7¢

+61% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMateo Del Pino at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mateo Del Pino

8 of 12 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Mateo Del Pino100%

Wilson Leite0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mateo Del Pino8 traders

Total Value$21.5K

Total Shares36,481

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Wilson Leite4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,688

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Mateo Del Pino — 67%Wilson Leite — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Mateo Del Pino. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWilson Leite 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpMateo Del Pino 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrMateo Del Pino 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Mateo Del Pino 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
01 01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100	Mateo Del Pinoavg 66.1¢	$32.9K	$33.9K	+$945.5	64% 230-128 (358)
└ Mateo Del Pino leg	Mateo Del Pinoavg 66.1¢	$24.4K	$21.8K	$-2.6K
└ Wilson Leite leg	Wilson Leiteavg 28.9¢	$8.5K	$12.0K	+$3.6K
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Wilson Leiteavg 45.5¢	$24.4K	$22.1K	$-2.3K	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
└ Wilson Leite leg	Wilson Leiteavg 45.5¢	$14.9K	$13.5K	$-1.5K
└ Mateo Del Pino leg	Mateo Del Pinoavg 64.9¢	$9.4K	$8.6K	-$853.54
EF efntrickARB<$100	Mateo Del Pinoavg 63.8¢	$14.8K	$15.4K	+$674.23	48% 3476-3739 (7215)
└ Mateo Del Pino leg	Mateo Del Pinoavg 63.8¢	$9.5K	$8.8K	-$717.03
└ Wilson Leite leg	Wilson Leiteavg 32.4¢	$5.3K	$6.7K	+$1.4K
YE yesmate	Mateo Del Pinoavg 53.3¢	$10.2K	$11.3K	+$1.1K	52% 341-320 (661)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Mateo Del Pinoavg 53.4¢	$8.6K	$10.9K	+$2.3K	53% 12339-11044 (23383)
└ Mateo Del Pino leg	Mateo Del Pinoavg 53.4¢	$5.3K	$5.9K	+$562.52
└ Wilson Leite leg	Wilson Leiteavg 26.5¢	$3.2K	$5.0K	+$1.8K
RN1ARB<$100	Wilson Leiteavg 48.7¢	$6.9K	$6.0K	-$961.71	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
└ Wilson Leite leg	Wilson Leiteavg 48.7¢	$5.3K	$4.5K	-$834.31
└ Mateo Del Pino leg	Mateo Del Pinoavg 64¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$127.4
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Mateo Del Pinoavg 70.5¢	$10.9K	$4.3K	$-1.4K	66% 468-237 (705)
TE tenniz	Mateo Del Pinoavg 70.8¢	$12.9K	$3.9K	$-1.1K	80% 56-14 (70)
0X 0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295	Mateo Del Pinoavg 84.8¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$607.76	67% 188-92 (280)
FO fortunekingCTR	Wilson Leiteavg 54¢	$1.3K	$983.99	-$312	58% 547-398 (945)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Wilson Leiteavg 42.5¢	$4.0K	$453.79	-$709.58	60% 3551-2407 (5958)
0X 0x1111111111	Mateo Del Pinoavg 63.3¢	$396.06	$369.54	-$26.52	64% 1593-911 (2504)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Wilson Leiteavg 61¢	$422.08	$283.83	-$138.25	63% 22911-13544 (36455)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR	Wilson Leiteavg 33¢	$161.26	$200.36	+$39.09	54% 1332-1145 (2477)
PA pauleta23	Mateo Del Pinoavg 51.5¢	$122.15	$144.86	+$22.71	71% 17969-7285 (25254)
HRTrading<$100	Mateo Del Pinoavg 12.2¢	$12.68	$61.36	+$23.72	57% 1670-1266 (2936)
BE berlinskies<$100	Mateo Del Pinoavg 86.6¢	$88.63	$60.38	-$28.25	57% 4954-3678 (8632)

01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100

Mateo Del Pino

Invested

$32,910.57

Value

$33.9K

PnL

+$945.5

Record

64%

230-128 (358)

Both legs:

Mateo Del Pino$24,434.5466.1¢$-2.6K

Wilson Leite$8,476.0328.9¢+$3.6K

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Wilson Leite

Invested

$24,388.74

Value

$22.1K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

Both legs:

Wilson Leite$14,946.9845.5¢$-1.5K

Mateo Del Pino$9,441.7664.9¢-$853.54

efntrickARB<$100

Mateo Del Pino

Invested

$14,768.26

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$674.23

Record

48%

3476-3739 (7215)

Both legs:

Mateo Del Pino$9,507.2763.8¢-$717.03

Wilson Leite$5,260.9932.4¢+$1.4K

yesmate

Mateo Del Pino

Invested

$10,245.28

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

52%

341-320 (661)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Mateo Del Pino

Invested

$8,560.91

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

53%

12339-11044 (23383)

Both legs:

Mateo Del Pino$5,316.7953.4¢+$562.52

Wilson Leite$3,244.1126.5¢+$1.8K

RN1ARB<$100

Wilson Leite

Invested

$6,935.32

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$961.71

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

Both legs:

Wilson Leite$5,304.648.7¢-$834.31

Mateo Del Pino$1,630.7264¢-$127.4

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Mateo Del Pino

Invested

$10,927.52

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

66%

468-237 (705)

tenniz

Mateo Del Pino

Invested

$12,945.49

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

80%

56-14 (70)

0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295

Mateo Del Pino

Invested

$1,995.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$607.76

Record

67%

188-92 (280)

fortunekingCTR

Wilson Leite

Invested

$1,295.99

Value

$983.99

PnL

-$312

Record

58%

547-398 (945)

thestingsnakeCTR

Wilson Leite

Invested

$3,992.71

Value

$453.79

PnL

-$709.58

Record

60%

3551-2407 (5958)

0x1111111111

Mateo Del Pino

Invested

$396.06

Value

$369.54

PnL

-$26.52

Record

64%

1593-911 (2504)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Wilson Leite

Invested

$422.08

Value

$283.83

PnL

-$138.25

Record

63%

22911-13544 (36455)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR

Wilson Leite

Invested

$161.26

Value

$200.36

PnL

+$39.09

Record

54%

1332-1145 (2477)

pauleta23

Mateo Del Pino

Invested

$122.15

Value

$144.86

PnL

+$22.71

Record

71%

17969-7285 (25254)

HRTrading<$100

Mateo Del Pino

Invested

$12.68

Value

$61.36

PnL

+$23.72

Record

57%

1670-1266 (2936)

berlinskies<$100

Mateo Del Pino

Invested

$88.63

Value

$60.38

PnL

-$28.25

Record

57%

4954-3678 (8632)

Research grade

NeutralMateo Del Pino at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Mateo Del Pino

8 of 12 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Mateo Del Pino. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWilson Leite 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpMateo Del Pino 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrMateo Del Pino 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Mateo Del Pino 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mateo Del Pino wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.