Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Aleksandar Kovacevic

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (71%) · Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard at 75¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 1

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard75¢Aleksandar Kovacevic25¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Consensus Traders

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.5K

Combined PnL

$644.02

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 74.5¢

+16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Research candidateGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard at 75%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard75%

Aleksandar Kovacevic26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard5 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares6,978

Combined PnL+$646.76

Aleksandar Kovacevic2 traders

Total Value$292.67

Total Shares1,036

Combined PnL-$2.73

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard — 71%Aleksandar Kovacevic — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 25.6¢	$8.6K	$10.0K	+$1.4K	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
└ Aleksandar Kovacevic leg	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 25.6¢	$6.9K	$7.9K	+$1.0K
└ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leg	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 57.8¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$374.62
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 31.2¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$517.14	60% 3529-2400 (5929)
└ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leg	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 46.5¢	$810.86	$1.2K	+$396.28
└ Aleksandar Kovacevic leg	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 31.2¢	$881.81	$875.32	+$120.86
tradecraft	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 45.2¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$721.41	52% 5508-5116 (10624)
EF efntrick	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 74.5¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$122.78	48% 3460-3723 (7183)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 73¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$24	53% 12219-10953 (23172)
HO HomeRunHazard	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 76.6¢	$498.2	$503.77	+$5.58	55% 12114-9994 (22108)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 24¢	$220.62	$216.02	-$4.6	66% 2852-1493 (4345)
BI BillBenter2026	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 59.5¢	$92.28	$110.82	+$18.54	58% 16134-11777 (27911)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 56¢	$74.78	$76.65	+$1.86	58% 31660-22917 (54577)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$8,581.97

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

Both legs:

Aleksandar Kovacevic$6,873.3425.6¢+$1.0K

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard$1,708.6357.8¢+$374.62

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$1,868.6

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$517.14

Record

60%

3529-2400 (5929)

Both legs:

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard$810.8646.5¢+$396.28

Aleksandar Kovacevic$881.8131.2¢+$120.86

tradecraft

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$1,076.68

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$721.41

Record

52%

5508-5116 (10624)

efntrick

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$1,638.58

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$122.78

Record

48%

3460-3723 (7183)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$1,168

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$24

Record

53%

12219-10953 (23172)

HomeRunHazard

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$498.2

Value

$503.77

PnL

+$5.58

Record

55%

12114-9994 (22108)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$220.62

Value

$216.02

PnL

-$4.6

Record

66%

2852-1493 (4345)

BillBenter2026

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$92.28

Value

$110.82

PnL

+$18.54

Record

58%

16134-11777 (27911)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$74.78

Value

$76.65

PnL

+$1.86

Record

58%

31660-22917 (54577)

Research grade

Research candidateGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard at 75%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.