Brest: Ryan Peniston vs Benjamin Hassan

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Benjamin Hassan (73%) · Benjamin Hassan at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1

Ryan Peniston<1¢Benjamin Hassan>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Benjamin Hassan

Consensus Traders

Benjamin Hassan 73%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$645.74

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 99.5¢

+34% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralBenjamin Hassan at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Benjamin Hassan

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ryan Peniston1%

Benjamin Hassan100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Benjamin Hassan8 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,891

Combined PnL+$634.96

Ryan Peniston3 traders

Total Value$597.92

Total Shares1,616

Combined PnL+$10.77

Benjamin Hassan — 73%Ryan Peniston — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Benjamin Hassanavg 75.5¢	$2.6K	$3.2K	+$598.97	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
HO HomeRunHazard	Benjamin Hassanavg 78¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$84.05	55% 12118-9997 (22115)
EF efntrick	Benjamin Hassanavg 59¢	$826.85	$794.83	-$32.02	48% 3461-3725 (7186)
13 13126052CTR	Ryan Penistonavg 37.6¢	$555.3	$589.97	+$34.67	51% 85-82 (167)
GH ghostorder	Benjamin Hassanavg 96¢	$275.61	$278.48	+$2.87	68% 3930-1880 (5810)
TH thestingsnake	Benjamin Hassanavg 58¢	$205.32	$212.4	+$7.08	60% 3531-2400 (5931)
BI BillBenter2026	Benjamin Hassanavg 75¢	$124.49	$99.6	-$24.89	58% 16138-11779 (27917)
0xheavy888<$100	Benjamin Hassanavg 58.5¢	$23.4	$23.2	-$1.2	56% 6357-5092 (11449)
tradecraft<$100	Benjamin Hassanavg 59¢	$5.9	$6	+$0.1	52% 5509-5116 (10625)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Ryan Penistonavg 17¢	$1.7	$4	+$2.3	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Ryan Penistonavg 22.9¢	$30.14	$3.95	-$26.2	53% 12226-10956 (23182)

UpTheBlues

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$2,569.89

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$598.97

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

HomeRunHazard

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$1,611.27

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$84.05

Record

55%

12118-9997 (22115)

efntrick

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$826.85

Value

$794.83

PnL

-$32.02

Record

48%

3461-3725 (7186)

13126052CTR

Ryan Peniston

Invested

$555.3

Value

$589.97

PnL

+$34.67

Record

51%

85-82 (167)

ghostorder

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$275.61

Value

$278.48

PnL

+$2.87

Record

68%

3930-1880 (5810)

thestingsnake

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$205.32

Value

$212.4

PnL

+$7.08

Record

60%

3531-2400 (5931)

BillBenter2026

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$124.49

Value

$99.6

PnL

-$24.89

Record

58%

16138-11779 (27917)

0xheavy888<$100

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$23.4

Value

$23.2

PnL

-$1.2

Record

56%

6357-5092 (11449)

tradecraft<$100

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$5.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

5509-5116 (10625)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Ryan Peniston

Invested

$1.7

Value

PnL

+$2.3

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Ryan Peniston

Invested

$30.14

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$26.2

Record

53%

12226-10956 (23182)

Research grade

NeutralBenjamin Hassan at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Benjamin Hassan

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Benjamin Hassan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.