Ningbo: Filip Peliwo vs Saba Purtseladze

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Filip Peliwo (100%) · Filip Peliwo at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1

Filip Peliwo>99¢Saba Purtseladze<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Filip Peliwo

Consensus Traders

Filip Peliwo 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$508.62

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 100¢

+41% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralFilip Peliwo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Peliwo

8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Filip Peliwo100%

Saba Purtseladze0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Filip Peliwo8 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,464

Combined PnL+$508.62

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Filip Peliwo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFilip Peliwo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpFilip Peliwo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrFilip Peliwo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedFilip Peliwo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Filip Peliwo 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thestingsnake	Filip Peliwoavg 70.6¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	+$475.91	60% 3526-2397 (5923)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Saba Purtseladzeavg 29.6¢	$894.32	$1.2K	+$327.33	48% 3458-3722 (7180)
└ Saba Purtseladze leg	Saba Purtseladzeavg 29.6¢	$624.05	$842.2	+$218.15
└ Filip Peliwo leg	Filip Peliwoavg 42.7¢	$270.27	$379.45	+$109.19
tradecraft	Filip Peliwoavg 71.9¢	$553.91	$605.78	+$51.88	52% 5507-5116 (10623)
TRCM	Filip Peliwoavg 72¢	$545	$600	+$55	57% 3641-2696 (6337)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Filip Peliwoavg 71¢	$360	$304.23	-$55.77	63% 22561-13320 (35881)
BI BillBenter2026	Filip Peliwoavg 69.9¢	$192.97	$158.4	-$34.57	58% 16124-11772 (27896)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Filip Peliwoavg 57¢	$42.18	$44.4	+$2.22	64% 1582-909 (2491)
PA pauleta23<$100	Filip Peliwoavg 72¢	$20	$16.67	-$3.33	71% 17581-7136 (24717)
FL flatbarrel	Filip Peliwoavg 72¢	$720	$8.45	+$17.29	59% 2584-1782 (4366)

thestingsnake

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$1,701.1

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$475.91

Record

60%

3526-2397 (5923)

efntrickARB<$100

Saba Purtseladze

Invested

$894.32

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$327.33

Record

48%

3458-3722 (7180)

Both legs:

Saba Purtseladze$624.0529.6¢+$218.15

Filip Peliwo$270.2742.7¢+$109.19

tradecraft

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$553.91

Value

$605.78

PnL

+$51.88

Record

52%

5507-5116 (10623)

TRCM

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$545

Value

$600

PnL

+$55

Record

57%

3641-2696 (6337)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$360

Value

$304.23

PnL

-$55.77

Record

63%

22561-13320 (35881)

BillBenter2026

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$192.97

Value

$158.4

PnL

-$34.57

Record

58%

16124-11772 (27896)

0x1111111111<$100

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$42.18

Value

$44.4

PnL

+$2.22

Record

64%

1582-909 (2491)

pauleta23<$100

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$20

Value

$16.67

PnL

-$3.33

Record

71%

17581-7136 (24717)

flatbarrel

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$720

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$17.29

Record

59%

2584-1782 (4366)

Research grade

NeutralFilip Peliwo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Peliwo

8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Filip Peliwo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFilip Peliwo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpFilip Peliwo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrFilip Peliwo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedFilip Peliwo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Filip Peliwo 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Filip Peliwo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.