Seoul: Uisung Park vs Shintaro Imai

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Shintaro Imai (44%) · Shintaro Imai at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2

Uisung Park<1¢Shintaro Imai>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Shintaro Imai

Consensus Traders

Shintaro Imai 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$402.8

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 100¢

+39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralShintaro Imai at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shintaro Imai

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Uisung Park0%

Shintaro Imai100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shintaro Imai4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,770

Combined PnL-$213.35

Uisung Park5 traders

Total Value$192.18

Total Shares502

Combined PnL-$189.45

Shintaro Imai — 44%Uisung Park — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EF efntrickARB<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 66.8¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$5.59	48% 3522-3773 (7295)
└ Shintaro Imai leg	Shintaro Imaiavg 66.8¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$9.42
└ Uisung Park leg	Uisung Parkavg 33¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$15.01
UP UpTheBlues	Shintaro Imaiavg 69.1¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$211.48	69% 35392-15597 (50989)
LO looppau	Shintaro Imaiavg 99.9¢	$117.55	$117.61	+$0.06	99% 8168-38 (8206)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Uisung Parkavg 54¢	$102.2	$84.22	-$17.98	55% 13345-10964 (24309)
PA Paul973973<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 99¢	$58.33	$58.04	-$0.29	89% 806-101 (907)
C4 0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100	Uisung Parkavg 30.5¢	$28.2	$41.13	+$12.92	—
RN1CTR<$100	Uisung Parkavg 26¢	$21.99	$37.63	+$15.65	55% 47299-39418 (86717)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Uisung Parkavg 45¢	$17.18	$16.99	-$0.19	56% 21200-16956 (38156)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Uisung Parkavg 37.3¢	$262.09	$12.21	-$199.85	60% 3688-2493 (6181)
HRTrading<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 67.1¢	$13.37	$11.74	-$1.63	55% 1971-1584 (3555)

efntrickARB<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$3,028.38

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$5.59

Record

48%

3522-3773 (7295)

Both legs:

Shintaro Imai$1,954.0766.8¢-$9.42

Uisung Park$1,074.3133¢+$15.01

UpTheBlues

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$1,223.42

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$211.48

Record

69%

35392-15597 (50989)

looppau

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$117.55

Value

$117.61

PnL

+$0.06

Record

99%

8168-38 (8206)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Uisung Park

Invested

$102.2

Value

$84.22

PnL

-$17.98

Record

55%

13345-10964 (24309)

Paul973973<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$58.33

Value

$58.04

PnL

-$0.29

Record

89%

806-101 (907)

0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100

Uisung Park

Invested

$28.2

Value

$41.13

PnL

+$12.92

Record

—

RN1CTR<$100

Uisung Park

Invested

$21.99

Value

$37.63

PnL

+$15.65

Record

55%

47299-39418 (86717)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Uisung Park

Invested

$17.18

Value

$16.99

PnL

-$0.19

Record

56%

21200-16956 (38156)

thestingsnakeCTR

Uisung Park

Invested

$262.09

Value

$12.21

PnL

-$199.85

Record

60%

3688-2493 (6181)

HRTrading<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$13.37

Value

$11.74

PnL

-$1.63

Record

55%

1971-1584 (3555)

Research grade

NeutralShintaro Imai at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Shintaro Imai

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shintaro Imai wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.