Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Semen Pankin (31%) · Semen Pankin at 86¢ · $52K held · ends Nov 1

Semen Pankin86¢Maxim Zhukov14¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Semen Pankin

Consensus Traders

Semen Pankin 31%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$51.5K

Combined PnL

$5.5K

Smart Money Entry

65.7¢ → 86¢

+31% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSemen Pankin at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Semen Pankin

4 of 13 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Semen Pankin86%

Maxim Zhukov14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Semen Pankin4 traders

Total Value$45.7K

Total Shares54,973

Combined PnL+$6.7K

Maxim Zhukov9 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares12,985

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Semen Pankin — 31%Maxim Zhukov — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA Jacdoh	Semen Pankinavg 65.2¢	$27.0K	$34.2K	+$7.2K	— 0-1 (1)
EF efntrick	Semen Pankinavg 69.4¢	$7.7K	$7.3K	-$449.16	48% 3439-3707 (7146)
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8	Semen Pankinavg 64.7¢	$4.7K	$4.2K	+$0.71	54% 65-55 (120)
0X 0x1111111111ARB<$100	Maxim Zhukovavg 32.6¢	$2.6K	$2.0K	-$550.32	28% 269-677 (946)
└ Maxim Zhukov leg	Maxim Zhukovavg 32.6¢	$1.9K	$1.0K	-$885.75
└ Semen Pankin leg	Semen Pankinavg 55.1¢	$675.17	$1.0K	+$335.44
tradecraftCTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 34.8¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$164.22	52% 5490-5090 (10580)
TRCMCTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 32¢	$1.7K	$946.12	-$774.55	57% 3637-2689 (6326)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	Maxim Zhukovavg 44.2¢	$1.1K	$574.96	-$537.32	53% 2356-2096 (4452)
└ Semen Pankin leg	Semen Pankinavg 82¢	$304.2	$318.93	+$14.73
└ Maxim Zhukov leg	Maxim Zhukovavg 44.2¢	$808.08	$256.03	-$552.05
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 45¢	$450	$385	-$65	63% 22445-13258 (35703)
SH shiifooCTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 35.7¢	$365.7	$162.57	-$7.24	63% 2554-1471 (4025)
FL flatbarrelCTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 29.8¢	$2.2K	$81.73	-$102.09	59% 2578-1777 (4355)
PA pauleta23CTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 25.9¢	$118.92	$64.18	-$54.74	71% 17316-6997 (24313)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Semen Pankinavg 70¢	$26.93	$28.11	+$1.18	58% 16089-11745 (27834)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Maxim Zhukovavg 40¢	$13.46	$12.96	-$0.5	65% 12541-6659 (19200)
MI milktea3CTR<$100	Maxim Zhukovavg 29.4¢	$12.28	$11.07	-$1.21	70% 1802-764 (2566)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Maxim Zhukovavg 42¢	$4.2	$3.85	-$0.35	55% 6317-5068 (11385)

Jacdoh

Semen Pankin

Invested

$27,043.52

Value

$34.2K

PnL

+$7.2K

Record

—

0-1 (1)

efntrick

Semen Pankin

Invested

$7,718.47

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$449.16

Record

48%

3439-3707 (7146)

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8

Semen Pankin

Invested

$4,695.91

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$0.71

Record

54%

65-55 (120)

0x1111111111ARB<$100

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$2,584.9

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$550.32

Record

28%

269-677 (946)

Both legs:

Maxim Zhukov$1,909.7332.6¢-$885.75

Semen Pankin$675.1755.1¢+$335.44

tradecraftCTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$1,738.4

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$164.22

Record

52%

5490-5090 (10580)

TRCMCTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$1,720.67

Value

$946.12

PnL

-$774.55

Record

57%

3637-2689 (6326)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$1,112.28

Value

$574.96

PnL

-$537.32

Record

53%

2356-2096 (4452)

Both legs:

Semen Pankin$304.282¢+$14.73

Maxim Zhukov$808.0844.2¢-$552.05

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$450

Value

$385

PnL

-$65

Record

63%

22445-13258 (35703)

shiifooCTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$365.7

Value

$162.57

PnL

-$7.24

Record

63%

2554-1471 (4025)

flatbarrelCTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$2,216.63

Value

$81.73

PnL

-$102.09

Record

59%

2578-1777 (4355)

pauleta23CTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$118.92

Value

$64.18

PnL

-$54.74

Record

71%

17316-6997 (24313)

BillBenter2026<$100

Semen Pankin

Invested

$26.93

Value

$28.11

PnL

+$1.18

Record

58%

16089-11745 (27834)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$13.46

Value

$12.96

PnL

-$0.5

Record

65%

12541-6659 (19200)

milktea3CTR<$100

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$12.28

Value

$11.07

PnL

-$1.21

Record

70%

1802-764 (2566)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0.35

Record

55%

6317-5068 (11385)

Research grade

NeutralSemen Pankin at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Semen Pankin

4 of 13 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Semen Pankin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.