Sioux Falls: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Quinn Vandecasteele

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Daniil Ostapenkov (60%) · Daniil Ostapenkov at 94¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 1

Daniil Ostapenkov94¢Quinn Vandecasteele6¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Daniil Ostapenkov

Consensus Traders

Daniil Ostapenkov 60%

Total Value

$14.3K

Combined PnL

$3.3K

Smart Money Entry

58.5¢ → 93.5¢

+60% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDaniil Ostapenkov at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniil Ostapenkov

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Daniil Ostapenkov94%

Quinn Vandecasteele7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniil Ostapenkov6 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares15,024

Combined PnL+$4.1K

Quinn Vandecasteele4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,502

Combined PnL-$852.15

Daniil Ostapenkov — 60%Quinn Vandecasteele — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 60.8¢	$6.9K	$10.2K	+$3.3K	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
TH thestingsnake	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 45.5¢	$1.3K	$2.2K	+$842.9	60% 3540-2405 (5945)
HO HomeRunHazard	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 74.1¢	$736.04	$702.91	-$33.13	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
EF efntrickCTR	Quinn Vandecasteeleavg 50¢	$1.3K	$664.67	-$637.73	48% 3466-3735 (7201)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Quinn Vandecasteeleavg 37.4¢	$675.05	$459.76	-$215.29	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Quinn Vandecasteeleavg 57¢	$49.78	$50.65	+$0.87	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
GH ghostorder<$100	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 45¢	$39.65	$37.01	-$2.64	68% 3945-1883 (5828)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 42¢	$13.08	$13.08	-$0	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Quinn Vandecasteeleavg 53¢	$5	$5	+$0	52% 5520-5139 (10659)
HRTrading<$100	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 67¢	$1.34	$1.26	-$0.08	57% 1578-1171 (2749)

UpTheBlues

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$6,900.35

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

thestingsnake

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$1,325.43

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$842.9

Record

60%

3540-2405 (5945)

HomeRunHazard

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$736.04

Value

$702.91

PnL

-$33.13

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

efntrickCTR

Quinn Vandecasteele

Invested

$1,302.4

Value

$664.67

PnL

-$637.73

Record

48%

3466-3735 (7201)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Quinn Vandecasteele

Invested

$675.05

Value

$459.76

PnL

-$215.29

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Quinn Vandecasteele

Invested

$49.78

Value

$50.65

PnL

+$0.87

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

ghostorder<$100

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$39.65

Value

$37.01

PnL

-$2.64

Record

68%

3945-1883 (5828)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$13.08

Value

$13.08

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Quinn Vandecasteele

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

5520-5139 (10659)

HRTrading<$100

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$0.08

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Research grade

NeutralDaniil Ostapenkov at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Daniil Ostapenkov

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniil Ostapenkov wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.