Guayaquil: Ryan Nijboer vs Mariano Kestelboim

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Ryan Nijboer (79%) · Ryan Nijboer at 100¢ · $59K held · ends Nov 1

Ryan Nijboer>99¢Mariano Kestelboim<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ryan Nijboer

Consensus Traders

Ryan Nijboer 79%

Total Value

$59.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralRyan Nijboer at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ryan Nijboer

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ryan Nijboer100%

Mariano Kestelboim0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ryan Nijboer11 traders

Total Value$58.6K

Total Shares61,429

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Mariano Kestelboim3 traders

Total Value$425.38

Total Shares6,008

Combined PnL+$26.2

Ryan Nijboer — 79%Mariano Kestelboim — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TE tenniz	Ryan Nijboeravg 99¢	$36.2K	$34.9K	$-1.3K	80% 56-14 (70)
01 01258787xy48487484545122	Ryan Nijboeravg 95.4¢	$7.8K	$7.5K	-$234.71	64% 230-127 (357)
HV HVAB	Ryan Nijboeravg 93¢	$6.5K	$6.4K	-$69.68	76% 495-155 (650)
EF efntrick	Ryan Nijboeravg 80.5¢	$4.5K	$3.8K	-$660.31	48% 3466-3735 (7201)
UP UpTheBlues	Ryan Nijboeravg 79¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$62.56	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
TH thestingsnake	Ryan Nijboeravg 75.7¢	$2.8K	$1.9K	+$568.82	60% 3540-2405 (5945)
IL Ilgato	Ryan Nijboeravg 93¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$7.81	71% 226-91 (317)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Ryan Nijboeravg 67.7¢	$338.86	$332.93	-$5.93	63% 22715-13447 (36162)
RN1CTR	Mariano Kestelboimavg 7¢	$221.2	$268.6	+$47.4	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Mariano Kestelboimavg 6.2¢	$177.82	$156.56	-$21.26	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
BE berlinskies	Ryan Nijboeravg 95¢	$149.98	$149.2	-$0.78	57% 4941-3668 (8609)
YE yesmate<$100	Ryan Nijboeravg 94¢	$47	$46.25	-$0.75	52% 341-320 (661)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Ryan Nijboeravg 70.9¢	$43.22	$34.16	-$9.06	64% 1587-910 (2497)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Mariano Kestelboimavg 14¢	$0.16	$0.22	+$0.06	50% 7794-7854 (15648)

tenniz

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$36,185.8

Value

$34.9K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

80%

56-14 (70)

01258787xy48487484545122

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$7,770.19

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$234.71

Record

64%

230-127 (357)

HVAB

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$6,511.74

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$69.68

Record

76%

495-155 (650)

efntrick

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$4,454.48

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$660.31

Record

48%

3466-3735 (7201)

UpTheBlues

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$2,001.81

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$62.56

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

thestingsnake

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$2,838.79

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$568.82

Record

60%

3540-2405 (5945)

Ilgato

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$1,453.22

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$7.81

Record

71%

226-91 (317)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$338.86

Value

$332.93

PnL

-$5.93

Record

63%

22715-13447 (36162)

RN1CTR

Mariano Kestelboim

Invested

$221.2

Value

$268.6

PnL

+$47.4

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Mariano Kestelboim

Invested

$177.82

Value

$156.56

PnL

-$21.26

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

berlinskies

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$149.98

Value

$149.2

PnL

-$0.78

Record

57%

4941-3668 (8609)

yesmate<$100

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$47

Value

$46.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

52%

341-320 (661)

0x1111111111<$100

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$43.22

Value

$34.16

PnL

-$9.06

Record

64%

1587-910 (2497)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Mariano Kestelboim

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

Research grade

NeutralRyan Nijboer at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Ryan Nijboer

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ryan Nijboer wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.