Guayaquil: Ryan Nijboer vs Lorenzo Claverie

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Ryan Nijboer (50%) · Ryan Nijboer at 62¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 2

Ryan Nijboer62¢Lorenzo Claverie38¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ryan Nijboer

Consensus Traders

Ryan Nijboer 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.7K

Combined PnL

$705.74

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 62¢

+16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralRyan Nijboer at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ryan Nijboer

5 of 10 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ryan Nijboer62%

Lorenzo Claverie38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ryan Nijboer5 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares14,160

Combined PnL+$784.34

Lorenzo Claverie5 traders

Total Value$342.64

Total Shares1,073

Combined PnL-$78.6

Ryan Nijboer — 50%Lorenzo Claverie — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Lorenzo Claverieavg 27¢	$7.5K	$9.3K	+$1.8K	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
└ Lorenzo Claverie leg	Lorenzo Claverieavg 27¢	$5.1K	$6.8K	+$1.8K
└ Ryan Nijboer leg	Ryan Nijboeravg 62.5¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$39.23
RN1	Ryan Nijboeravg 50.5¢	$5.0K	$5.6K	+$637.71	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Ryan Nijboeravg 50.5¢	$2.3K	$2.8K	+$478.03	53% 13181-11666 (24847)
└ Ryan Nijboer leg	Ryan Nijboeravg 50.5¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$416
└ Lorenzo Claverie leg	Lorenzo Claverieavg 33.4¢	$675.87	$737.91	+$62.03
EF efntrickARB<$100	Ryan Nijboeravg 52.1¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$229.66	48% 3570-3818 (7388)
└ Ryan Nijboer leg	Ryan Nijboeravg 52.1¢	$961.78	$1.1K	+$174.57
└ Lorenzo Claverie leg	Lorenzo Claverieavg 36.1¢	$815.89	$870.98	+$55.09
TRCM	Ryan Nijboeravg 61¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$15	56% 3878-3105 (6983)
TH thestingsnake	Ryan Nijboeravg 57.7¢	$916.73	$753.28	+$129.88	60% 3813-2585 (6398)
poshposhCTR	Lorenzo Claverieavg 54¢	$162	$160.5	-$1.5	61% 8644-5579 (14223)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Lorenzo Claverieavg 33¢	$233	$158.86	-$74.14	54% 15474-12956 (28430)
FL flatbarrel	Ryan Nijboeravg 61¢	$267.19	$84.88	+$0.69	58% 2711-1944 (4655)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Lorenzo Claverieavg 50.7¢	$14.94	$14.29	-$0.65	52% 5762-5377 (11139)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Ryan Nijboeravg 70¢	$9.87	$10.93	+$1.06	50% 17407-17735 (35142)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Lorenzo Claverieavg 29¢	$10.18	$7.9	-$2.28	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Lorenzo Claverieavg 55¢	$1.12	$1.09	-$0.03	55% 2163-1776 (3939)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Lorenzo Claverie

Invested

$7,496.99

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Claverie$5,057.4527¢+$1.8K

Ryan Nijboer$2,439.5462.5¢+$39.23

RN1

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$4,959.82

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$637.71

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$2,291.87

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$478.03

Record

53%

13181-11666 (24847)

Both legs:

Ryan Nijboer$1,61650.5¢+$416

Lorenzo Claverie$675.8733.4¢+$62.03

efntrickARB<$100

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$1,777.67

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$229.66

Record

48%

3570-3818 (7388)

Both legs:

Ryan Nijboer$961.7852.1¢+$174.57

Lorenzo Claverie$815.8936.1¢+$55.09

TRCM

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$1,830

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$15

Record

56%

3878-3105 (6983)

thestingsnake

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$916.73

Value

$753.28

PnL

+$129.88

Record

60%

3813-2585 (6398)

poshposhCTR

Lorenzo Claverie

Invested

$162

Value

$160.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

61%

8644-5579 (14223)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Lorenzo Claverie

Invested

$233

Value

$158.86

PnL

-$74.14

Record

54%

15474-12956 (28430)

flatbarrel

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$267.19

Value

$84.88

PnL

+$0.69

Record

58%

2711-1944 (4655)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Lorenzo Claverie

Invested

$14.94

Value

$14.29

PnL

-$0.65

Record

52%

5762-5377 (11139)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$9.87

Value

$10.93

PnL

+$1.06

Record

50%

17407-17735 (35142)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Lorenzo Claverie

Invested

$10.18

Value

$7.9

PnL

-$2.28

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Lorenzo Claverie

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.03

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

Research grade

NeutralRyan Nijboer at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Ryan Nijboer

5 of 10 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ryan Nijboer wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.