Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Titouan Droguet

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Lukas Neumayer (71%) · Lukas Neumayer at 92¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 1

Lukas Neumayer92¢Titouan Droguet8¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Lukas Neumayer

Consensus Traders

Lukas Neumayer 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 92¢

+81% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateLukas Neumayer at 92%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lukas Neumayer

12 of 17 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lukas Neumayer92%

Titouan Droguet8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lukas Neumayer12 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares13,625

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Titouan Droguet5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,593

Combined PnL-$825.15

Lukas Neumayer — 71%Titouan Droguet — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Lukas Neumayeravg 38.9¢	$4.1K	$5.9K	+$1.7K	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
HO HomeRunHazard	Lukas Neumayeravg 82.6¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$163.43	55% 12111-9992 (22103)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Titouan Droguetavg 56.1¢	$2.8K	$1.6K	$-1.2K	48% 3458-3722 (7180)
└ Lukas Neumayer leg	Lukas Neumayeravg 31.2¢	$433.18	$1.3K	+$844.92
└ Titouan Droguet leg	Titouan Droguetavg 56.1¢	$2.4K	$336.22	$-2.0K
RN1CTR	Titouan Droguetavg 59¢	$1.8K	$950.17	-$829.08	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Titouan Droguetavg 69.5¢	$2.1K	$908.32	$-1.2K	53% 12216-10949 (23165)
└ Lukas Neumayer leg	Lukas Neumayeravg 80.5¢	$585.31	$635.83	+$50.52
└ Titouan Droguet leg	Titouan Droguetavg 69.5¢	$1.5K	$272.49	$-1.2K
TH thestingsnake	Lukas Neumayeravg 33.9¢	$655	$894.66	+$353.25	60% 3526-2397 (5923)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Lukas Neumayeravg 64.5¢	$645	$685	+$40	51% 979-932 (1911)
IL IlliascaCTR	Titouan Droguetavg 71.5¢	$300	$298.09	-$1.91	64% 222-124 (346)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Lukas Neumayeravg 38¢	$375	$286.18	-$88.82	60% 165-111 (276)
NA NatoAlfista	Lukas Neumayeravg 30¢	$190.62	$184.27	-$6.35	66% 2852-1491 (4343)
noosh3	Lukas Neumayeravg 38¢	$187.5	$143.09	-$44.41	52% 190-176 (366)
0X 0x1111111111ARB<$100	Lukas Neumayeravg 29¢	$86.99	$89.49	+$2.5	64% 1582-909 (2491)
└ Lukas Neumayer leg	Lukas Neumayeravg 29¢	$53.99	$53.99	+$0
└ Titouan Droguet leg	Titouan Droguetavg 66¢	$33	$35.5	+$2.5
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Lukas Neumayeravg 38¢	$100	$76.32	-$23.68	53% 2374-2111 (4485)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Titouan Droguetavg 72¢	$62.64	$61.77	-$0.87	58% 1460-1073 (2533)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Lukas Neumayeravg 58.1¢	$49.41	$53.13	+$3.72	58% 16124-11772 (27896)
VeryLucky888CTR	Titouan Droguetavg 70¢	$240.33	$46.44	+$6.25	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
PA pauleta23<$100	Lukas Neumayeravg 64¢	$10	$4.53	-$5.47	71% 17581-7136 (24717)
FL flatbarrel	Lukas Neumayeravg 63¢	$127.97	$3.95	+$6.24	59% 2584-1782 (4366)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Titouan Droguetavg 62¢	$3.1	$3.55	+$0.45	52% 5507-5116 (10623)
TRCM<$100	Lukas Neumayeravg 30¢	$1.5	$1.45	-$0.05	57% 3641-2696 (6337)

UpTheBlues

Lukas Neumayer

Invested

$4,146.73

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

HomeRunHazard

Lukas Neumayer

Invested

$3,170.3

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$163.43

Record

55%

12111-9992 (22103)

efntrickARB<$100

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$2,790.62

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

48%

3458-3722 (7180)

Both legs:

Lukas Neumayer$433.1831.2¢+$844.92

Titouan Droguet$2,357.4356.1¢$-2.0K

RN1CTR

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$1,779.24

Value

$950.17

PnL

-$829.08

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$2,100.23

Value

$908.32

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

53%

12216-10949 (23165)

Both legs:

Lukas Neumayer$585.3180.5¢+$50.52

Titouan Droguet$1,514.9169.5¢$-1.2K

thestingsnake

Lukas Neumayer

Invested

$655

Value

$894.66

PnL

+$353.25

Record

60%

3526-2397 (5923)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Lukas Neumayer

Invested

$645

Value

$685

PnL

+$40

Record

51%

979-932 (1911)

IlliascaCTR

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$300

Value

$298.09

PnL

-$1.91

Record

64%

222-124 (346)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Lukas Neumayer

Invested

$375

Value

$286.18

PnL

-$88.82

Record

60%

165-111 (276)

NatoAlfista

Lukas Neumayer

Invested

$190.62

Value

$184.27

PnL

-$6.35

Record

66%

2852-1491 (4343)

noosh3

Lukas Neumayer

Invested

$187.5

Value

$143.09

PnL

-$44.41

Record

52%

190-176 (366)

0x1111111111ARB<$100

Lukas Neumayer

Invested

$86.99

Value

$89.49

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

1582-909 (2491)

Both legs:

Lukas Neumayer$53.9929¢+$0

Titouan Droguet$3366¢+$2.5

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Lukas Neumayer

Invested

$100

Value

$76.32

PnL

-$23.68

Record

53%

2374-2111 (4485)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$62.64

Value

$61.77

PnL

-$0.87

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

BillBenter2026<$100

Lukas Neumayer

Invested

$49.41

Value

$53.13

PnL

+$3.72

Record

58%

16124-11772 (27896)

VeryLucky888CTR

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$240.33

Value

$46.44

PnL

+$6.25

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

pauleta23<$100

Lukas Neumayer

Invested

$10

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$5.47

Record

71%

17581-7136 (24717)

flatbarrel

Lukas Neumayer

Invested

$127.97

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$6.24

Record

59%

2584-1782 (4366)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Titouan Droguet

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0.45

Record

52%

5507-5116 (10623)

TRCM<$100

Lukas Neumayer

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

57%

3641-2696 (6337)

Research grade

Research candidateLukas Neumayer at 92%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Lukas Neumayer

12 of 17 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lukas Neumayer wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.