Sioux Falls: Govind Nanda vs Patrick Zahraj

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Patrick Zahraj (75%) · Patrick Zahraj at 81¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1

Govind Nanda20¢Patrick Zahraj80¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Patrick Zahraj

Consensus Traders

Patrick Zahraj 75%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$91.69

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 80.5¢

+21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPatrick Zahraj at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patrick Zahraj

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Govind Nanda20%

Patrick Zahraj81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Patrick Zahraj6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,219

Combined PnL+$145.02

Govind Nanda2 traders

Total Value$295.2

Total Shares913

Combined PnL-$53.33

Patrick Zahraj — 75%Govind Nanda — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Patrick Zahrajavg 77¢	$830.08	$777.24	-$52.84	55% 12144-10023 (22167)
TH thestingsnake	Patrick Zahrajavg 67.3¢	$687.22	$755.64	+$117.91	60% 3538-2405 (5943)
UP UpTheBlues	Patrick Zahrajavg 75.5¢	$544.51	$542.24	-$2.27	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
OL oliverea	Patrick Zahrajavg 45¢	$259.19	$472.3	+$43.2	58% 265-192 (457)
GH ghostorderCTR	Govind Nandaavg 38¢	$342.42	$288.3	-$54.12	68% 3934-1881 (5815)
EF efntrick	Patrick Zahrajavg 55.2¢	$110.94	$136.68	+$25.74	48% 3466-3730 (7196)
tradecraft<$100	Patrick Zahrajavg 59¢	$55.57	$68.84	+$13.27	52% 5516-5123 (10639)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Govind Nandaavg 29.7¢	$6.11	$6.9	+$0.79	57% 1506-1114 (2620)

HomeRunHazard

Patrick Zahraj

Invested

$830.08

Value

$777.24

PnL

-$52.84

Record

55%

12144-10023 (22167)

thestingsnake

Patrick Zahraj

Invested

$687.22

Value

$755.64

PnL

+$117.91

Record

60%

3538-2405 (5943)

UpTheBlues

Patrick Zahraj

Invested

$544.51

Value

$542.24

PnL

-$2.27

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

oliverea

Patrick Zahraj

Invested

$259.19

Value

$472.3

PnL

+$43.2

Record

58%

265-192 (457)

ghostorderCTR

Govind Nanda

Invested

$342.42

Value

$288.3

PnL

-$54.12

Record

68%

3934-1881 (5815)

efntrick

Patrick Zahraj

Invested

$110.94

Value

$136.68

PnL

+$25.74

Record

48%

3466-3730 (7196)

tradecraft<$100

Patrick Zahraj

Invested

$55.57

Value

$68.84

PnL

+$13.27

Record

52%

5516-5123 (10639)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Govind Nanda

Invested

$6.11

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$0.79

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

Research grade

NeutralPatrick Zahraj at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Patrick Zahraj

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patrick Zahraj wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.