Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lorenzo Musetti, while the market favors Frances Tiafoe (51%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Erste Bank Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Musetti (67%) · Lorenzo Musetti at 49¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Lorenzo Musetti
3
Lorenzo Musetti 67%
$4.8K
-$70.46
49.4¢ → 48.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralLorenzo Musetti at 49%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Frances Tiafoe 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.4¢ | $2.8K | $2.7K | -$80.52 | 58% 37320-27172 (64492) |
K5 k56 | Frances Tiafoeavg 51.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$11.58 | 58% 880-649 (1529) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Lorenzo Musettiavg 49.6¢ | $65.54 | $64.02 | -$1.52 | 57% 24224-18647 (42871) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.