Ningbo: Hiroki Moriya vs Timofei Derepasko

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hiroki Moriya (56%) · Hiroki Moriya at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2

Hiroki Moriya>99¢Timofei Derepasko<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hiroki Moriya

Consensus Traders

Hiroki Moriya 56%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$51.89

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 100¢

+41% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralHiroki Moriya at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hiroki Moriya

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hiroki Moriya100%

Timofei Derepasko0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hiroki Moriya5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,238

Combined PnL-$54.02

Timofei Derepasko4 traders

Total Value$68.82

Total Shares226

Combined PnL+$2.13

Hiroki Moriya — 56%Timofei Derepasko — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EF efntrick	Hiroki Moriyaavg 64.5¢	$1.0K	$934.94	-$89.58	48% 3551-3797 (7348)
TH thestingsnake	Hiroki Moriyaavg 87.5¢	$298.3	$332.64	+$36.59	60% 3737-2531 (6268)
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR<$100	Timofei Derepaskoavg 30¢	$40.92	$41.6	+$0.68	55% 803-652 (1455)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Timofei Derepaskoavg 25¢	$15.34	$18.71	+$3.37	50% 10665-10792 (21457)
HRTrading<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 71¢	$16.34	$15.45	-$0.89	55% 2064-1680 (3744)
0xheavy888<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 70¢	$10.5	$10.42	-$0.08	56% 6646-5318 (11964)
PA pauleta23<$100	Hiroki Moriyaavg 82¢	$10	$9.94	-$0.06	71% 20000-8116 (28116)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Timofei Derepaskoavg 28.1¢	$5.04	$5.46	+$0.42	62% 13301-8165 (21466)
TRCMCTR<$100	Timofei Derepaskoavg 54¢	$5.4	$3.05	-$2.35	56% 3845-3077 (6922)

efntrick

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$1,024.51

Value

$934.94

PnL

-$89.58

Record

48%

3551-3797 (7348)

thestingsnake

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$298.3

Value

$332.64

PnL

+$36.59

Record

60%

3737-2531 (6268)

GamblingOdysseyCTR<$100

Timofei Derepasko

Invested

$40.92

Value

$41.6

PnL

+$0.68

Record

55%

803-652 (1455)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Timofei Derepasko

Invested

$15.34

Value

$18.71

PnL

+$3.37

Record

50%

10665-10792 (21457)

HRTrading<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$16.34

Value

$15.45

PnL

-$0.89

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

0xheavy888<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.42

PnL

-$0.08

Record

56%

6646-5318 (11964)

pauleta23<$100

Hiroki Moriya

Invested

$10

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$0.06

Record

71%

20000-8116 (28116)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Timofei Derepasko

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.46

PnL

+$0.42

Record

62%

13301-8165 (21466)

TRCMCTR<$100

Timofei Derepasko

Invested

$5.4

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$2.35

Record

56%

3845-3077 (6922)

Research grade

NeutralHiroki Moriya at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hiroki Moriya

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hiroki Moriya wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.