Brest: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Federico Cina

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Federico Cina (63%) · Federico Cina at 90¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 3

Shintaro Mochizuki10¢Federico Cina90¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Federico Cina

Consensus Traders

Federico Cina 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.4K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 90¢

+29% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralFederico Cina at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Federico Cina

10 of 16 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Shintaro Mochizuki10%

Federico Cina90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Federico Cina10 traders

Total Value$24.1K

Total Shares29,174

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Shintaro Mochizuki6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares8,811

Combined PnL+$817.43

Federico Cina — 63%Shintaro Mochizuki — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Federico Cinaavg 77.4¢	$12.3K	$12.9K	+$601.34	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
EF efntrick	Federico Cinaavg 70.1¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$126.54	48% 3570-3818 (7388)
tradecraft	Federico Cinaavg 51.2¢	$1.5K	$2.6K	+$1.1K	52% 5762-5377 (11139)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 30.2¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$538.78	50% 17407-17735 (35142)
FL flatbarrel	Federico Cinaavg 54.5¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$270.06	58% 2711-1944 (4655)
SC SchruteBucks	Federico Cinaavg 59.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$202.36	56% 1765-1378 (3143)
TH thestingsnake	Federico Cinaavg 77.6¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	+$15.58	60% 3813-2585 (6398)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Federico Cinaavg 70¢	$836.71	$972.58	+$83.9	53% 13181-11666 (24847)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Federico Cinaavg 63¢	$760	$812.5	+$52.5	51% 1108-1062 (2170)
└ Federico Cina leg	Federico Cinaavg 63¢	$630	$625	-$5
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 26¢	$130	$187.5	+$57.5
TRCMARB<$100	Federico Cinaavg 55¢	$600.87	$778.58	+$177.71	56% 3878-3105 (6983)
└ Federico Cina leg	Federico Cinaavg 55¢	$480.43	$397.44	-$82.98
└ Shintaro Mochizuki leg	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 17.2¢	$120.45	$381.14	+$260.69
RN1CTR	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 39¢	$725.98	$735.28	+$9.31	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
MI MilesYCTR	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 47.7¢	$487.82	$506.02	+$18.2	58% 588-432 (1020)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 17.8¢	$236.13	$463.38	+$227.25	54% 15474-12956 (28430)
SocialistaCTR	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 42.5¢	$335.97	$355.57	+$19.61	63% 2558-1517 (4075)
1L 1lovejump	Federico Cinaavg 72.5¢	$184.35	$85.32	+$29.54	52% 544-494 (1038)
VeryLucky888<$100	Federico Cinaavg 59¢	$59.46	$55.43	-$4.03	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Federico Cinaavg 55¢	$35.75	$35.75	+$0	50% 3610-3579 (7189)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Shintaro Mochizukiavg 36.8¢	$12.43	$16.71	+$4.28	55% 2163-1776 (3939)

UpTheBlues

Federico Cina

Invested

$12,316.2

Value

$12.9K

PnL

+$601.34

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

efntrick

Federico Cina

Invested

$3,492.27

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$126.54

Record

48%

3570-3818 (7388)

tradecraft

Federico Cina

Invested

$1,542.6

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

52%

5762-5377 (11139)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$1,143.03

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$538.78

Record

50%

17407-17735 (35142)

flatbarrel

Federico Cina

Invested

$1,635.06

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$270.06

Record

58%

2711-1944 (4655)

SchruteBucks

Federico Cina

Invested

$1,159.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$202.36

Record

56%

1765-1378 (3143)

thestingsnake

Federico Cina

Invested

$1,391.9

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$15.58

Record

60%

3813-2585 (6398)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Federico Cina

Invested

$836.71

Value

$972.58

PnL

+$83.9

Record

53%

13181-11666 (24847)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Federico Cina

Invested

$760

Value

$812.5

PnL

+$52.5

Record

51%

1108-1062 (2170)

Both legs:

Federico Cina$63063¢-$5

Shintaro Mochizuki$13026¢+$57.5

TRCMARB<$100

Federico Cina

Invested

$600.87

Value

$778.58

PnL

+$177.71

Record

56%

3878-3105 (6983)

Both legs:

Federico Cina$480.4355¢-$82.98

Shintaro Mochizuki$120.4517.2¢+$260.69

RN1CTR

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$725.98

Value

$735.28

PnL

+$9.31

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

MilesYCTR

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$487.82

Value

$506.02

PnL

+$18.2

Record

58%

588-432 (1020)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$236.13

Value

$463.38

PnL

+$227.25

Record

54%

15474-12956 (28430)

SocialistaCTR

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$335.97

Value

$355.57

PnL

+$19.61

Record

63%

2558-1517 (4075)

1lovejump

Federico Cina

Invested

$184.35

Value

$85.32

PnL

+$29.54

Record

52%

544-494 (1038)

VeryLucky888<$100

Federico Cina

Invested

$59.46

Value

$55.43

PnL

-$4.03

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

NatoAlfista<$100

Federico Cina

Invested

$35.75

Value

$35.75

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3610-3579 (7189)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Shintaro Mochizuki

Invested

$12.43

Value

$16.71

PnL

+$4.28

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

Research grade

NeutralFederico Cina at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Federico Cina

10 of 16 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Federico Cina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.