Sioux Falls: Kenta Miyoshi vs Gavin Young

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Gavin Young (58%) · Gavin Young at 76¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1

Kenta Miyoshi24¢Gavin Young76¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gavin Young

Consensus Traders

Gavin Young 58%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$263.23

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 76.4¢

-7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralGavin Young at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gavin Young

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kenta Miyoshi24%

Gavin Young76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gavin Young7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,980

Combined PnL+$270.93

Kenta Miyoshi5 traders

Total Value$72.3

Total Shares761

Combined PnL-$7.69

Gavin Young — 58%Kenta Miyoshi — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghostorder	Gavin Youngavg 92.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$63.53	68% 3945-1883 (5828)
EF efntrick	Gavin Youngavg 80.8¢	$912.83	$918.6	+$5.77	48% 3466-3735 (7201)
HO HomeRunHazard	Gavin Youngavg 75.6¢	$787.09	$918.41	+$131.32	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
tradecraft	Gavin Youngavg 84.4¢	$516.15	$574.93	+$58.77	52% 5520-5139 (10659)
UP UpTheBlues	Gavin Youngavg 72.9¢	$432.57	$534.74	+$102.17	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Gavin Youngavg 39¢	$53.04	$89.76	+$36.72	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Kenta Miyoshiavg 8.2¢	$151.09	$39.35	-$13.31	60% 3540-2405 (5945)
RN1<$100	Gavin Youngavg 92¢	$18.4	$18.1	-$0.3	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 24.1¢	$19.44	$18.08	-$1.36	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 11.4¢	$8.57	$13.62	+$5.38	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
TRCMCTR<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 3¢	$0.63	$1.1	+$0.47	57% 3649-2700 (6349)
FL flatbarrelCTR<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 9¢	$3.78	$0.14	+$1.12	59% 2589-1787 (4376)

ghostorder

Gavin Young

Invested

$1,733.61

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$63.53

Record

68%

3945-1883 (5828)

efntrick

Gavin Young

Invested

$912.83

Value

$918.6

PnL

+$5.77

Record

48%

3466-3735 (7201)

HomeRunHazard

Gavin Young

Invested

$787.09

Value

$918.41

PnL

+$131.32

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

tradecraft

Gavin Young

Invested

$516.15

Value

$574.93

PnL

+$58.77

Record

52%

5520-5139 (10659)

UpTheBlues

Gavin Young

Invested

$432.57

Value

$534.74

PnL

+$102.17

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Gavin Young

Invested

$53.04

Value

$89.76

PnL

+$36.72

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

thestingsnakeCTR

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$151.09

Value

$39.35

PnL

-$13.31

Record

60%

3540-2405 (5945)

RN1<$100

Gavin Young

Invested

$18.4

Value

$18.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$19.44

Value

$18.08

PnL

-$1.36

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$8.57

Value

$13.62

PnL

+$5.38

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

TRCMCTR<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$0.63

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.47

Record

57%

3649-2700 (6349)

flatbarrelCTR<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$3.78

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$1.12

Record

59%

2589-1787 (4376)

Research grade

NeutralGavin Young at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Gavin Young

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gavin Young wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.3%

76.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.