Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Filip Misolic, while the market favors Alex Hernandez (54%). 7 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Guayaquil: Filip Misolic vs Alex Hernandez

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Filip Misolic (50%) · Filip Misolic at 47¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 2

Filip Misolic47¢Alex Hernandez53¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Filip Misolic

Consensus Traders

Filip Misolic 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

-$121.65

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 46.5¢

-9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFilip Misolic at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Misolic

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Alex Hernandez 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Filip Misolic47%

Alex Hernandez54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Filip Misolic7 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares16,047

Combined PnL+$61.1

Alex Hernandez7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,479

Combined PnL-$182.75

Filip Misolic — 50%Alex Hernandez — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Filip Misolicavg 51.4¢	$7.7K	$7.7K	+$77.56	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Alex Hernandezavg 46.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$143.92	53% 13181-11666 (24847)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Alex Hernandezavg 49.8¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$200.38	48% 3570-3818 (7388)
└ Alex Hernandez leg	Alex Hernandezavg 49.8¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$272.88
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 48¢	$278.4	$350.9	+$72.5
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Alex Hernandezavg 52¢	$800	$761.54	-$38.46	59% 175-123 (298)
OM omnibus-076daa	Alex Hernandezavg 50.8¢	$499.8	$487.11	-$12.69	50% 17407-17735 (35142)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Filip Misolicavg 45.9¢	$410.41	$373.49	-$28.75	60% 3813-2585 (6398)
RN1	Alex Hernandezavg 49¢	$230.34	$232.69	+$2.35	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
poshposh	Alex Hernandezavg 46¢	$201.6	$212.55	+$10.96	61% 8644-5579 (14223)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Filip Misolicavg 53.6¢	$181.62	$188.09	+$6.47	54% 15474-12956 (28430)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Filip Misolicavg 82¢	$31.78	$30.45	-$1.33	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Filip Misolicavg 54¢	$10.56	$17.11	+$6.55	55% 1588-1308 (2896)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Filip Misolicavg 87¢	$15.39	$15.48	+$0.09	56% 6695-5367 (12062)
HRTrading<$100	Alex Hernandezavg 47¢	$9.4	$8.9	-$0.5	55% 2163-1776 (3939)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Filip Misolicavg 38¢	$4.33	$4.84	+$0.51	56% 1765-1378 (3143)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Alex Hernandezavg 16¢	$2.21	$1.73	-$0.48	62% 13400-8249 (21649)

UpTheBluesCTR

Filip Misolic

Invested

$7,671.91

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$77.56

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$1,545.14

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$143.92

Record

53%

13181-11666 (24847)

efntrickARB<$100

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$1,594

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$200.38

Record

48%

3570-3818 (7388)

Both legs:

Alex Hernandez$1,315.649.8¢-$272.88

Filip Misolic$278.448¢+$72.5

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$800

Value

$761.54

PnL

-$38.46

Record

59%

175-123 (298)

omnibus-076daa

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$499.8

Value

$487.11

PnL

-$12.69

Record

50%

17407-17735 (35142)

thestingsnakeCTR

Filip Misolic

Invested

$410.41

Value

$373.49

PnL

-$28.75

Record

60%

3813-2585 (6398)

RN1

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$230.34

Value

$232.69

PnL

+$2.35

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

poshposh

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$201.6

Value

$212.55

PnL

+$10.96

Record

61%

8644-5579 (14223)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Filip Misolic

Invested

$181.62

Value

$188.09

PnL

+$6.47

Record

54%

15474-12956 (28430)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$31.78

Value

$30.45

PnL

-$1.33

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$10.56

Value

$17.11

PnL

+$6.55

Record

55%

1588-1308 (2896)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$15.39

Value

$15.48

PnL

+$0.09

Record

56%

6695-5367 (12062)

HRTrading<$100

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$9.4

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$0.5

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$4.33

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$0.51

Record

56%

1765-1378 (3143)

Lilybaeum<$100

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$2.21

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$0.48

Record

62%

13400-8249 (21649)

Research grade

NeutralFilip Misolic at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Misolic

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Alex Hernandez 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Filip Misolic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.