Ningbo: Ognjen Milic vs Kaichi Uchida

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Kaichi Uchida (60%) · Kaichi Uchida at 100¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 3

Ognjen Milic<1¢Kaichi Uchida>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kaichi Uchida

Consensus Traders

Kaichi Uchida 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

$625.29

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 100¢

+105% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralKaichi Uchida at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kaichi Uchida

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ognjen Milic0%

Kaichi Uchida100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kaichi Uchida6 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,903

Combined PnL+$924.98

Ognjen Milic4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,556

Combined PnL-$299.7

Kaichi Uchida — 60%Ognjen Milic — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EF efntrick	Kaichi Uchidaavg 48.2¢	$3.6K	$4.5K	+$934.05	48% 3551-3797 (7348)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 54.6¢	$3.6K	$4.4K	+$728.87	53% 12837-11424 (24261)
└ Kaichi Uchida leg	Kaichi Uchidaavg 54.6¢	$2.3K	$3.4K	+$1.1K
└ Ognjen Milic leg	Ognjen Milicavg 27.3¢	$1.3K	$936	-$376
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Ognjen Milicavg 72.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$49.52	63% 25635-15377 (41012)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Ognjen Milicavg 62.1¢	$1.3K	$725.35	-$349.87	60% 3737-2531 (6268)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 47.2¢	$500.15	$675.08	+$174.93	71% 20000-8116 (28116)
└ Kaichi Uchida leg	Kaichi Uchidaavg 47.2¢	$320.84	$495.77	+$174.93
└ Ognjen Milic leg	Ognjen Milicavg 27¢	$179.31	$179.31	+$0
BI BillBenter2026	Kaichi Uchidaavg 80.6¢	$106.14	$92.45	-$13.69	58% 17314-12719 (30033)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 37¢	$53.65	$48.58	-$5.07	50% 3521-3537 (7058)
HRTrading<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 60.2¢	$37.38	$46.99	+$9.61	55% 2064-1680 (3744)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Ognjen Milicavg 65¢	$15.01	$14.66	-$0.35	56% 6646-5318 (11964)
tradecraft<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 76¢	$9.99	$9.8	-$0.2	52% 5637-5262 (10899)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 33¢	$2.78	$3.08	+$0.3	62% 13301-8165 (21466)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Ognjen Milicavg 0.1¢	$0.25	$1.25	+$1	50% 2395-2423 (4818)

efntrick

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$3,597.35

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$934.05

Record

48%

3551-3797 (7348)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$3,636.5

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$728.87

Record

53%

12837-11424 (24261)

Both legs:

Kaichi Uchida$2,324.554.6¢+$1.1K

Ognjen Milic$1,31227.3¢-$376

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$1,104.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$49.52

Record

63%

25635-15377 (41012)

thestingsnakeCTR

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$1,297.37

Value

$725.35

PnL

-$349.87

Record

60%

3737-2531 (6268)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$500.15

Value

$675.08

PnL

+$174.93

Record

71%

20000-8116 (28116)

Both legs:

Kaichi Uchida$320.8447.2¢+$174.93

Ognjen Milic$179.3127¢+$0

BillBenter2026

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$106.14

Value

$92.45

PnL

-$13.69

Record

58%

17314-12719 (30033)

NatoAlfista<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$53.65

Value

$48.58

PnL

-$5.07

Record

50%

3521-3537 (7058)

HRTrading<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$37.38

Value

$46.99

PnL

+$9.61

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$15.01

Value

$14.66

PnL

-$0.35

Record

56%

6646-5318 (11964)

tradecraft<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

5637-5262 (10899)

Lilybaeum<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$2.78

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.3

Record

62%

13301-8165 (21466)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$0.25

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

2395-2423 (4818)

Research grade

NeutralKaichi Uchida at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Kaichi Uchida

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kaichi Uchida wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.