Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Daniel Milavsky, while the market favors Harry Wendelken (55%). 18 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Sioux Falls: Daniel Milavsky vs Harry Wendelken

18 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Milavsky (78%) · Daniel Milavsky at 46¢ · $171K held · ends Nov 2

Daniel Milavsky46¢Harry Wendelken54¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Daniel Milavsky

Consensus Traders

Daniel Milavsky 78%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$170.9K

Combined PnL

$-9.0K

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 45.5¢

-27% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Milavsky at 46%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Milavsky

18 of 23 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Harry Wendelken 55%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Daniel Milavsky46%

Harry Wendelken55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniel Milavsky18 traders

Total Value$81.0K

Total Shares124,579

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Harry Wendelken5 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares38,568

Combined PnL$-5.2K

Daniel Milavsky — 78%Harry Wendelken — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on Daniel Milavsky. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDaniel Milavsky 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpDaniel Milavsky 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrDaniel Milavsky 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedDaniel Milavsky 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Daniel Milavsky 71% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
01 01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100	Harry Wendelkenavg 40.2¢	$65.9K	$54.0K	$-11.9K	64% 246-137 (383)
└ Harry Wendelken leg	Harry Wendelkenavg 40.2¢	$37.8K	$30.1K	$-7.7K
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 80.2¢	$28.3K	$24.0K	$-4.1K
RN1CTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 55.7¢	$22.2K	$25.6K	+$3.4K	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 59¢	$24.3K	$19.0K	$-5.3K	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
HV HVABCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 81¢	$26.4K	$16.6K	$-5.6K	76% 548-169 (717)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 60¢	$12.7K	$12.8K	+$122.29	52% 13421-12256 (25677)
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 60¢	$8.5K	$6.5K	$-2.1K
└ Harry Wendelken leg	Harry Wendelkenavg 35.8¢	$4.2K	$6.4K	+$2.2K
RO robustmst	Harry Wendelkenavg 45.7¢	$15.7K	$11.0K	$-4.9K	48% 95-104 (199)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 60¢	$10.1K	$10.2K	+$76.47	48% 3586-3838 (7424)
└ Harry Wendelken leg	Harry Wendelkenavg 39.8¢	$4.1K	$5.6K	+$1.5K
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 60¢	$6.0K	$4.5K	$-1.4K
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 58¢	$3.8K	$4.6K	+$822.14	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
SA Salad1CTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 50¢	$3.0K	$4.1K	+$1.1K	49% 85-88 (173)
poshposhCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 61¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$285.51	61% 8819-5730 (14549)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 60¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$267.98	—
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 59¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$175	51% 1144-1084 (2228)
MI MilesYCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 66.4¢	$3.2K	$1.3K	-$637.21	57% 597-445 (1042)
GH ghostorderCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 51¢	$2.4K	$1.3K	+$1.4K	62% 4206-2592 (6798)
MR MrDouche	Harry Wendelkenavg 42¢	$1.0K	$799.92	-$249.97	83% 1670-346 (2016)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 50.5¢	$500	$673.33	+$173.33	58% 179-127 (306)
LS LSS1CTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 53¢	$406.51	$521.56	+$115.05	72% 1510-594 (2104)
tradecraftCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 73.5¢	$493.96	$456.69	-$47.35	52% 5780-5396 (11176)
TH thestingsnake	Harry Wendelkenavg 38.8¢	$3.0K	$436.48	-$150.6	60% 3856-2609 (6465)
latvian.demonCTR	Daniel Milavskyavg 52¢	$261	$341.31	+$87.84	54% 596-512 (1108)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 57¢	$501.23	$197	-$3.91	53% 557-501 (1058)
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 57¢	$113.6	$135.59	+$41.02
└ Harry Wendelken leg	Harry Wendelkenavg 45.4¢	$87.13	$61.41	-$44.93
0X 0x1111111111	Harry Wendelkenavg 23.5¢	$141.14	$192	+$50.86	62% 1678-1047 (2725)
HRTradingARB<$100	Harry Wendelkenavg 19.7¢	$80.83	$116.04	+$35.21	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
└ Harry Wendelken leg	Harry Wendelkenavg 19.7¢	$43.47	$70.48	+$27.01
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 55.8¢	$37.36	$45.56	+$8.2
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 51¢	$57.4	$76.6	+$19.2	59% 29411-20147 (49558)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Harry Wendelkenavg 47.5¢	$39.22	$43.29	+$4.07	57% 27008-20057 (47065)

01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100

Harry Wendelken

Invested

$65,899.78

Value

$54.0K

PnL

$-11.9K

Record

64%

246-137 (383)

Both legs:

Harry Wendelken$37,803.6940.2¢$-7.7K

Daniel Milavsky$28,272.7180.2¢$-4.1K

RN1CTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$22,239.12

Value

$25.6K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

UpTheBluesCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$24,269.46

Value

$19.0K

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

HVABCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$26,379.15

Value

$16.6K

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

76%

548-169 (717)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$12,711.27

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$122.29

Record

52%

13421-12256 (25677)

Both legs:

Daniel Milavsky$8,528.1160¢$-2.1K

Harry Wendelken$4,183.1635.8¢+$2.2K

robustmst

Harry Wendelken

Invested

$15,747.1

Value

$11.0K

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

48%

95-104 (199)

efntrickARB<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$10,086.99

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$76.47

Record

48%

3586-3838 (7424)

Both legs:

Harry Wendelken$4,108.9639.8¢+$1.5K

Daniel Milavsky$5,978.0360¢$-1.4K

HomeRunHazardCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$3,818.64

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$822.14

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Salad1CTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$3,005.57

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

49%

85-88 (173)

poshposhCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$2,189.23

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$285.51

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

SlickRick123CTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$2,009.85

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$267.98

Record

—

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$1,490

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$175

Record

51%

1144-1084 (2228)

MilesYCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$3,236.6

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$637.21

Record

57%

597-445 (1042)

ghostorderCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$2,359.22

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

62%

4206-2592 (6798)

MrDouche

Harry Wendelken

Invested

$1,049.89

Value

$799.92

PnL

-$249.97

Record

83%

1670-346 (2016)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$500

Value

$673.33

PnL

+$173.33

Record

58%

179-127 (306)

LSS1CTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$406.51

Value

$521.56

PnL

+$115.05

Record

72%

1510-594 (2104)

tradecraftCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$493.96

Value

$456.69

PnL

-$47.35

Record

52%

5780-5396 (11176)

thestingsnake

Harry Wendelken

Invested

$3,049.66

Value

$436.48

PnL

-$150.6

Record

60%

3856-2609 (6465)

latvian.demonCTR

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$261

Value

$341.31

PnL

+$87.84

Record

54%

596-512 (1108)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$501.23

Value

$197

PnL

-$3.91

Record

53%

557-501 (1058)

Both legs:

Daniel Milavsky$113.657¢+$41.02

Harry Wendelken$87.1345.4¢-$44.93

0x1111111111

Harry Wendelken

Invested

$141.14

Value

$192

PnL

+$50.86

Record

62%

1678-1047 (2725)

HRTradingARB<$100

Harry Wendelken

Invested

$80.83

Value

$116.04

PnL

+$35.21

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Both legs:

Harry Wendelken$43.4719.7¢+$27.01

Daniel Milavsky$37.3655.8¢+$8.2

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$57.4

Value

$76.6

PnL

+$19.2

Record

59%

29411-20147 (49558)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Harry Wendelken

Invested

$39.22

Value

$43.29

PnL

+$4.07

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Milavsky at 46%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Milavsky

18 of 23 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Harry Wendelken 55%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on Daniel Milavsky. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDaniel Milavsky 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpDaniel Milavsky 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrDaniel Milavsky 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedDaniel Milavsky 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Daniel Milavsky 71% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniel Milavsky wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.