Guayaquil: Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Tristan McCormick

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Tristan McCormick (67%) · Tristan McCormick at 79¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1

Bernardo Munk Mesa22¢Tristan McCormick78¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tristan McCormick

Consensus Traders

Tristan McCormick 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$55.82

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 78.5¢

+30% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTristan McCormick at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tristan McCormick

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bernardo Munk Mesa22%

Tristan McCormick79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tristan McCormick4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,048

Combined PnL-$386.07

Bernardo Munk Mesa2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,953

Combined PnL+$441.89

Tristan McCormick — 67%Bernardo Munk Mesa — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Bernardo Munk Mesaavg 48.7¢	$4.2K	$3.1K	$-1.2K	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
└ Tristan McCormick leg	Tristan McCormickavg 63¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$363.86
└ Bernardo Munk Mesa leg	Bernardo Munk Mesaavg 48.7¢	$2.8K	$1.2K	$-1.5K
EF efntrick	Tristan McCormickavg 55.4¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$154.15	48% 3479-3741 (7220)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Bernardo Munk Mesaavg 50.1¢	$665.34	$956.24	+$290.9	59% 14202-9839 (24041)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Bernardo Munk Mesaavg 48.2¢	$315.54	$450	+$150.99	60% 3556-2419 (5975)
HO HomeRunHazard	Tristan McCormickavg 76¢	$806	$296.95	-$509.05	55% 12364-10168 (22532)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Tristan McCormickavg 46¢	$78.66	$47.88	-$30.78	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
HRTrading<$100	Tristan McCormickavg 41¢	$1.23	$0.84	-$0.39	57% 1726-1316 (3042)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Bernardo Munk Mesa

Invested

$4,242.5

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

Both legs:

Tristan McCormick$1,480.8663¢+$363.86

Bernardo Munk Mesa$2,761.6448.7¢$-1.5K

efntrick

Tristan McCormick

Invested

$2,353.01

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$154.15

Record

48%

3479-3741 (7220)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Bernardo Munk Mesa

Invested

$665.34

Value

$956.24

PnL

+$290.9

Record

59%

14202-9839 (24041)

thestingsnakeCTR

Bernardo Munk Mesa

Invested

$315.54

Value

$450

PnL

+$150.99

Record

60%

3556-2419 (5975)

HomeRunHazard

Tristan McCormick

Invested

$806

Value

$296.95

PnL

-$509.05

Record

55%

12364-10168 (22532)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Tristan McCormick

Invested

$78.66

Value

$47.88

PnL

-$30.78

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

HRTrading<$100

Tristan McCormick

Invested

$1.23

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$0.39

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

Research grade

NeutralTristan McCormick at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Tristan McCormick

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tristan McCormick wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.