Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lukas Neumayer, while the market favors Jakub Mensik (86%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Erste Bank Open: Jakub Mensik vs Lukas Neumayer
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Lukas Neumayer (100%) · Lukas Neumayer at 14¢ · $287 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Lukas Neumayer
2
Lukas Neumayer 100%
$286.88
-$12.74
14.8¢ → 14¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidLukas Neumayer at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Jakub Mensik 86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Lukas Neumayeravg 14.9¢ | $650.56 | $280 | -$12.74 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Lukas Neumayeravg 14¢ | $6.87 | $6.87 | +$0 | 62% 13398-8242 (21640) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.