Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Daniil Medvedev (80%) · Daniil Medvedev at 80¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1
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Research candidate
Daniil Medvedev
5
Daniil Medvedev 80%
$7.4K
$117.02
77.3¢ → 79.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateDaniil Medvedev at 80%
Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Daniil Medvedevavg 78.1¢ | $4.3K | $2.9K | +$73.59 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
PL pltrkr111 | Daniil Medvedevavg 79¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$12.66 | 55% 669-554 (1223) |
K5 k56CTR | Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 22¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$28.41 | 58% 875-646 (1521) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Daniil Medvedevavg 78¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$6.79 | 65% 1523-816 (2339) |
GA GamblingAddict12345 | Daniil Medvedevavg 49¢ | $129.07 | $206.78 | +$77.71 | 59% 3045-2103 (5148) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$4,322.53
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$73.59
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$12.66
Record
55%
669-554 (1223)
Invested
$1,250
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$28.41
Record
58%
875-646 (1521)
Invested
$1,059.23
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$6.79
Record
65%
1523-816 (2339)
Invested
$129.07
Value
$206.78
PnL
+$77.71
Record
59%
3045-2103 (5148)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.