Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold James McCabe, while the market favors Hiroki Moriya (66%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Ningbo: James McCabe vs Hiroki Moriya
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold James McCabe (67%) · $176 held · ends Nov 3
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Contrarian
James McCabe
3
James McCabe 67%
$176.13
$0.26
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Hiroki Moriya 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SC SchruteBucks | James McCabeavg 65.5¢ | $117.9 | $118.8 | +$0.9 | 56% 1774-1388 (3162) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | James McCabeavg 66¢ | $52.8 | $52 | -$0.8 | 56% 6824-5466 (12290) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Hiroki Moriyaavg 34¢ | $5.33 | $5.33 | +$0.16 | 58% 27838-20469 (48307) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.