Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Beibit Zhukayev, while the market favors Koki Matsuda (89%). 8 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Seoul: Koki Matsuda vs Beibit Zhukayev

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Beibit Zhukayev (50%) · Beibit Zhukayev at 11¢ · $50K held · ends Nov 2

Koki Matsuda89¢Beibit Zhukayev11¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Beibit Zhukayev

Consensus Traders

Beibit Zhukayev 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.5K

Combined PnL

$272.31

Smart Money Entry

60.6¢ → 11¢

-82% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidBeibit Zhukayev at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Beibit Zhukayev

8 of 16 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Koki Matsuda 89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Koki Matsuda89%

Beibit Zhukayev11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Beibit Zhukayev8 traders

Total Value$24.4K

Total Shares43,118

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Koki Matsuda8 traders

Total Value$22.0K

Total Shares26,742

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Beibit Zhukayev — 50%Koki Matsuda — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK kkookkooCTR	Beibit Zhukayevavg 59¢	$23.6K	$22.8K	-$782.34	50% 551-542 (1093)
01 01258787xy48487484545122	Koki Matsudaavg 61.1¢	$7.6K	$9.3K	+$1.7K	65% 235-129 (364)
EF efntrick	Koki Matsudaavg 68.1¢	$5.7K	$5.4K	-$229.87	48% 3534-3785 (7319)
12xmrbolt	Koki Matsudaavg 75.3¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$404.18	44% 235-300 (535)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Beibit Zhukayevavg 49.9¢	$6.4K	$2.3K	$-4.0K	61% 39128-25536 (64664)
└ Beibit Zhukayev leg	Beibit Zhukayevavg 49.9¢	$5.8K	$1.3K	$-4.5K
└ Koki Matsuda leg	Koki Matsudaavg 48¢	$575.26	$1.1K	+$490.64
RN1	Koki Matsudaavg 41.1¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$102.75	54% 49727-41784 (91511)
poshposh	Koki Matsudaavg 77.6¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$54.31	—
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Beibit Zhukayevavg 88¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	-$702.45	55% 13724-11269 (24993)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Beibit Zhukayevavg 64.1¢	$875.17	$784.57	-$67.34	60% 3713-2507 (6220)
└ Beibit Zhukayev leg	Beibit Zhukayevavg 64.1¢	$617.96	$549.78	-$68.19
└ Koki Matsuda leg	Koki Matsudaavg 40.5¢	$221.23	$234.79	+$0.85
GH ghostorder	Koki Matsudaavg 42¢	$525	$537.5	+$12.5	68% 4045-1945 (5990)
tradecraftCTR	Beibit Zhukayevavg 86¢	$472.76	$313.34	-$159.42	52% 5625-5238 (10863)
BE berlinskies<$100	Koki Matsudaavg 15.5¢	$49.99	$37.01	-$12.98	57% 5346-3984 (9330)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Beibit Zhukayevavg 13.6¢	$19.48	$15.74	-$3.74	50% 11969-12194 (24163)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Beibit Zhukayevavg 17.9¢	$22.99	$14.11	-$8.88	62% 25059-15084 (40143)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Beibit Zhukayevavg 61¢	$12.2	$11	-$0.9	56% 6571-5265 (11836)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Beibit Zhukayevavg 44.4¢	$8.58	$8.6	+$0.02	49% 16876-17268 (34144)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Koki Matsudaavg 39¢	$5.08	$5.66	+$0.59	56% 21200-16956 (38156)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Beibit Zhukayevavg 56¢	$1.12	$1.14	+$0.02	55% 2028-1637 (3665)

kkookkooCTR

Beibit Zhukayev

Invested

$23,577.89

Value

$22.8K

PnL

-$782.34

Record

50%

551-542 (1093)

01258787xy48487484545122

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$7,550.37

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

65%

235-129 (364)

efntrick

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$5,667.96

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$229.87

Record

48%

3534-3785 (7319)

12xmrbolt

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$2,228.29

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$404.18

Record

44%

235-300 (535)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Beibit Zhukayev

Invested

$6,369.84

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

61%

39128-25536 (64664)

Both legs:

Beibit Zhukayev$5,794.5849.9¢$-4.5K

Koki Matsuda$575.2648¢+$490.64

RN1

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$2,240.88

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$102.75

Record

54%

49727-41784 (91511)

poshposh

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$1,773.5

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$54.31

Record

—

HomeRunHazardCTR

Beibit Zhukayev

Invested

$1,992.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$702.45

Record

55%

13724-11269 (24993)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Beibit Zhukayev

Invested

$875.17

Value

$784.57

PnL

-$67.34

Record

60%

3713-2507 (6220)

Both legs:

Beibit Zhukayev$617.9664.1¢-$68.19

Koki Matsuda$221.2340.5¢+$0.85

ghostorder

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$525

Value

$537.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

68%

4045-1945 (5990)

tradecraftCTR

Beibit Zhukayev

Invested

$472.76

Value

$313.34

PnL

-$159.42

Record

52%

5625-5238 (10863)

berlinskies<$100

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$49.99

Value

$37.01

PnL

-$12.98

Record

57%

5346-3984 (9330)

sentrioCTR<$100

Beibit Zhukayev

Invested

$19.48

Value

$15.74

PnL

-$3.74

Record

50%

11969-12194 (24163)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Beibit Zhukayev

Invested

$22.99

Value

$14.11

PnL

-$8.88

Record

62%

25059-15084 (40143)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Beibit Zhukayev

Invested

$12.2

Value

$11

PnL

-$0.9

Record

56%

6571-5265 (11836)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Beibit Zhukayev

Invested

$8.58

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

16876-17268 (34144)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.66

PnL

+$0.59

Record

56%

21200-16956 (38156)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Beibit Zhukayev

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

2028-1637 (3665)

Research grade

AvoidBeibit Zhukayev at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Beibit Zhukayev

8 of 16 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Koki Matsuda 89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Beibit Zhukayev wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.5%

11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$698.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

798.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.