Seoul: Koki Matsuda vs Geun Jun Kim

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Koki Matsuda (75%) · Koki Matsuda at 98¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 1

Koki Matsuda98¢Geun Jun Kim2¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Koki Matsuda

Consensus Traders

Koki Matsuda 75%

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

-$172.96

Smart Money Entry

88.1¢ → 98.5¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralKoki Matsuda at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Koki Matsuda

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Koki Matsuda98%

Geun Jun Kim2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Koki Matsuda6 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares10,918

Combined PnL+$924.93

Geun Jun Kim2 traders

Total Value$310.93

Total Shares5,464

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Koki Matsuda — 75%Geun Jun Kim — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Koki Matsudaavg 89.7¢	$6.0K	$6.6K	+$583.74	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
HO HomeRunHazard	Koki Matsudaavg 87.2¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$195.69	55% 11759-9662 (21421)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Koki Matsudaavg 82.5¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$133.36	53% 12096-10862 (22958)
EF efntrickCTR	Geun Jun Kimavg 7¢	$43.75	$176.63	+$132.88	48% 3439-3707 (7146)
BI BillBenter2026	Koki Matsudaavg 88.8¢	$127.84	$140.04	+$12.2	58% 16089-11745 (27834)
RN1CTR	Geun Jun Kimavg 28¢	$1.4K	$134.3	$-1.2K	55% 43123-35478 (78601)
0xheavy888<$100	Koki Matsudaavg 70¢	$35	$35	+$0	55% 6317-5068 (11385)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Koki Matsudaavg 73¢	$3.58	$3.44	-$0.07	55% 1292-1041 (2333)

UpTheBlues

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$6,026.34

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$583.74

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

HomeRunHazard

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$2,440.78

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$195.69

Record

55%

11759-9662 (21421)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$1,044.76

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$133.36

Record

53%

12096-10862 (22958)

efntrickCTR

Geun Jun Kim

Invested

$43.75

Value

$176.63

PnL

+$132.88

Record

48%

3439-3707 (7146)

BillBenter2026

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$127.84

Value

$140.04

PnL

+$12.2

Record

58%

16089-11745 (27834)

RN1CTR

Geun Jun Kim

Invested

$1,365.06

Value

$134.3

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

55%

43123-35478 (78601)

0xheavy888<$100

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$35

Value

$35

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

6317-5068 (11385)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Koki Matsuda

Invested

$3.58

Value

$3.44

PnL

-$0.07

Record

55%

1292-1041 (2333)

Research grade

NeutralKoki Matsuda at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Koki Matsuda

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Koki Matsuda wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.