Ningbo: Ryuki Matsuda vs Naoya Honda
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Naoya Honda (67%) · Naoya Honda at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Naoya Honda
6
Naoya Honda 67%
$1.9K
$226.84
80.3¢ → 92.5¢
+15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNaoya Honda at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EF efntrick | Naoya Hondaavg 79.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$237.35 | 48% 3456-3720 (7176) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Naoya Hondaavg 80.7¢ | $97.61 | $88.94 | -$8.67 | 58% 16115-11766 (27881) |
 0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18<$100 | Naoya Hondaavg 96¢ | $70.37 | $68.54 | -$1.83 | 66% 466-236 (702) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Ryuki Matsudaavg 48¢ | $33.66 | $33.66 | +$0 | 55% 43485-35791 (79276) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Ryuki Matsudaavg 49¢ | $14.7 | $14.4 | +$0.15 | 56% 6347-5081 (11428) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Naoya Hondaavg 53¢ | $5.38 | $5.69 | -$0.15 | 55% 1297-1043 (2340) |
Invested
$1,462.33
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$237.35
Record
48%
3456-3720 (7176)
Invested
$97.61
Value
$88.94
PnL
-$8.67
Record
58%
16115-11766 (27881)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18<$100Invested
$70.37
Value
$68.54
PnL
-$1.83
Record
66%
466-236 (702)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$33.66
Value
$33.66
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
43485-35791 (79276)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$14.7
Value
$14.4
PnL
+$0.15
Record
56%
6347-5081 (11428)
Invested
$5.38
Value
$5.69
PnL
-$0.15
Record
55%
1297-1043 (2340)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.