Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kaylan Bigun, while the market favors Andres Martin (56%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Sioux Falls: Andres Martin vs Kaylan Bigun
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Kaylan Bigun (50%) · Kaylan Bigun at 44¢ · $66 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Kaylan Bigun
2
Kaylan Bigun 50%
$66.35
$5.47
Research grade
NeutralKaylan Bigun at 44%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Andres Martin 56%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Kaylan Bigunavg 40¢ | $54.73 | $60.21 | +$5.47 | 57% 24224-18647 (42871) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Andres Martinavg 56¢ | $6.15 | $6.15 | +$0 | 56% 6680-5350 (12030) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.