Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Fabian Marozsan vs Tomas Machac
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Tomas Machac (60%) · Tomas Machac at 69¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Tomas Machac
5
Tomas Machac 60%
$4.2K
-$92.17
72.2¢ → 68.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTomas Machac at 69%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K5 k56 | Tomas Machacavg 72.3¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | -$154.21 | 58% 875-646 (1521) |
 VeryLucky888 | Tomas Machacavg 69.4¢ | $754.5 | $177.98 | +$52.71 | 58% 31334-22653 (53987) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Fabian Marozsanavg 28.1¢ | $96.99 | $105.36 | +$8.37 | 65% 12536-6655 (19191) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Fabian Marozsanavg 30¢ | $36.39 | $37 | +$0.61 | 68% 30725-14776 (45501) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Tomas Machacavg 67.7¢ | $13.66 | $14.02 | +$0.36 | 55% 1287-1037 (2324) |
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$154.21
Record
58%
875-646 (1521)
VeryLucky888Invested
$754.5
Value
$177.98
PnL
+$52.71
Record
58%
31334-22653 (53987)
Invested
$96.99
Value
$105.36
PnL
+$8.37
Record
65%
12536-6655 (19191)
Invested
$36.39
Value
$37
PnL
+$0.61
Record
68%
30725-14776 (45501)
Invested
$13.66
Value
$14.02
PnL
+$0.36
Record
55%
1287-1037 (2324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.