Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Adrian Mannarino (63%) · Adrian Mannarino at 74¢ · $156K held · ends Nov 1

Adrian Mannarino74¢Alex Molcan26¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Adrian Mannarino

Consensus Traders

Adrian Mannarino 63%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$155.7K

Combined PnL

$8.4K

Smart Money Entry

41.6¢ → 73.5¢

+77% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralAdrian Mannarino at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Adrian Mannarino

10 of 16 top traders (63%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Adrian Mannarino74%

Alex Molcan27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Adrian Mannarino10 traders

Total Value$96.4K

Total Shares181,653

Combined PnL+$13.3K

Alex Molcan6 traders

Total Value$19.4K

Total Shares58,247

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Adrian Mannarino — 63%Alex Molcan — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmst	Adrian Mannarinoavg 39¢	$43.3K	$43.3K	-$9.07	48% 85-92 (177)
UP UpTheBlues	Adrian Mannarinoavg 42.5¢	$24.9K	$35.5K	+$10.6K	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
LU LuzzzerCTR	Alex Molcanavg 41.1¢	$20.4K	$15.6K	$-4.7K	45% 94-116 (210)
RN1ARB<$100	Alex Molcanavg 59.3¢	$21.0K	$15.5K	$-5.4K	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 69¢	$9.5K	$9.5K	-$74.21
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 59.3¢	$11.4K	$6.1K	$-5.4K
HO HomeRunHazard	Adrian Mannarinoavg 51.1¢	$9.8K	$13.0K	+$3.2K	55% 12118-9997 (22115)
01 01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100	Alex Molcanavg 61.5¢	$9.5K	$9.8K	+$241.9	64% 230-127 (357)
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 61.5¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$1.7K
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 53.5¢	$5.2K	$3.8K	$-1.4K
GH ghostorderARB<$100	Alex Molcanavg 73¢	$10.3K	$5.8K	$-4.5K	68% 3930-1880 (5810)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 71¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$20.63
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 73¢	$7.3K	$2.9K	$-4.5K
EF efntrickARB<$100	Alex Molcanavg 48.3¢	$6.1K	$5.7K	-$410	48% 3461-3725 (7186)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 52.6¢	$2.8K	$3.9K	+$1.1K
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 48.3¢	$3.3K	$1.8K	$-1.5K
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Alex Molcanavg 63¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$42	53% 12226-10956 (23182)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 46.8¢	$1.4K	$2.2K	+$766.66
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 63¢	$1.4K	$627.14	-$808.66
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Adrian Mannarinoavg 44¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	-$342.59	39% 445-689 (1134)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Alex Molcanavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$615	51% 980-932 (1912)
TH thestingsnake	Adrian Mannarinoavg 70.9¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$146.67	60% 3531-2400 (5931)
BA BaltazarGombkaCTR	Alex Molcanavg 47.2¢	$2.4K	$1.6K	-$799.4	67% 275-135 (410)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Alex Molcanavg 60¢	$214.29	$225	+$1.79	66% 2853-1494 (4347)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 73¢	$246.21	$175.1	-$71.12	58% 16138-11779 (27917)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 73¢	$123.33	$124.22	+$0.88
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 64¢	$122.88	$50.88	-$72
SE sentrio	Adrian Mannarinoavg 72¢	$117.08	$117.89	+$0.81	49% 10996-11351 (22347)
tradecraftARB<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 30.3¢	$101.53	$111.43	+$9.9	52% 5509-5116 (10625)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 30.3¢	$61.03	$78.49	+$17.46
└ Alex Molcan leg	Alex Molcanavg 75¢	$40.5	$32.94	-$7.56
VeryLucky888CTR	Alex Molcanavg 59¢	$103.25	$106.75	+$4.38	58% 31667-22925 (54592)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 40.3¢	$70.54	$68.25	-$1.41	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
HRTrading<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 29.3¢	$39.48	$48.54	+$9.06	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
TRCM<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 42.8¢	$13.9	$22.26	+$8.36	57% 3642-2697 (6339)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 39¢	$14.82	$14.82	+$0	64% 1583-909 (2492)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Alex Molcanavg 69¢	$13.45	$7.89	-$5.56	71% 17634-7151 (24785)

robustmst

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$43,325.52

Value

$43.3K

PnL

-$9.07

Record

48%

85-92 (177)

UpTheBlues

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$24,900.23

Value

$35.5K

PnL

+$10.6K

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

LuzzzerCTR

Alex Molcan

Invested

$20,375.69

Value

$15.6K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

45%

94-116 (210)

RN1ARB<$100

Alex Molcan

Invested

$20,955.48

Value

$15.5K

PnL

$-5.4K

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$9,524.469¢-$74.21

Alex Molcan$11,431.0859.3¢$-5.4K

HomeRunHazard

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$9,822.2

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

55%

12118-9997 (22115)

01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100

Alex Molcan

Invested

$9,517.5

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$241.9

Record

64%

230-127 (357)

Both legs:

Alex Molcan$5,999.9861.5¢+$1.7K

Adrian Mannarino$5,225.4253.5¢$-1.4K

ghostorderARB<$100

Alex Molcan

Invested

$10,278.38

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

68%

3930-1880 (5810)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$2,928.7571¢+$20.63

Alex Molcan$7,349.6373¢$-4.5K

efntrickARB<$100

Alex Molcan

Invested

$6,112.04

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$410

Record

48%

3461-3725 (7186)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$2,771.252.6¢+$1.1K

Alex Molcan$3,340.8448.3¢$-1.5K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Alex Molcan

Invested

$2,835.33

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$42

Record

53%

12226-10956 (23182)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$1,399.5346.8¢+$766.66

Alex Molcan$1,435.7963¢-$808.66

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$342.59

Record

39%

445-689 (1134)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Alex Molcan

Invested

$1,215

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$615

Record

51%

980-932 (1912)

thestingsnake

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$1,888.51

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$146.67

Record

60%

3531-2400 (5931)

BaltazarGombkaCTR

Alex Molcan

Invested

$2,401.21

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$799.4

Record

67%

275-135 (410)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Alex Molcan

Invested

$214.29

Value

$225

PnL

+$1.79

Record

66%

2853-1494 (4347)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$246.21

Value

$175.1

PnL

-$71.12

Record

58%

16138-11779 (27917)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$123.3373¢+$0.88

Alex Molcan$122.8864¢-$72

sentrio

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$117.08

Value

$117.89

PnL

+$0.81

Record

49%

10996-11351 (22347)

tradecraftARB<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$101.53

Value

$111.43

PnL

+$9.9

Record

52%

5509-5116 (10625)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$61.0330.3¢+$17.46

Alex Molcan$40.575¢-$7.56

VeryLucky888CTR

Alex Molcan

Invested

$103.25

Value

$106.75

PnL

+$4.38

Record

58%

31667-22925 (54592)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$70.54

Value

$68.25

PnL

-$1.41

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

HRTrading<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$39.48

Value

$48.54

PnL

+$9.06

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

TRCM<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$13.9

Value

$22.26

PnL

+$8.36

Record

57%

3642-2697 (6339)

0x1111111111<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$14.82

Value

$14.82

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

1583-909 (2492)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Alex Molcan

Invested

$13.45

Value

$7.89

PnL

-$5.56

Record

71%

17634-7151 (24785)

Research grade

NeutralAdrian Mannarino at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Adrian Mannarino

10 of 16 top traders (63%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Adrian Mannarino wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.