Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Ignacio Buse, while the market favors Adrian Mannarino (63%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Erste Bank Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Ignacio Buse
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Ignacio Buse (100%) · Ignacio Buse at 37¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Ignacio Buse
3
Ignacio Buse 100%
$1.0K
-$15.48
38.2¢ → 37¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralIgnacio Buse at 37%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Adrian Mannarino 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BB bbbetkCTR | Ignacio Buseavg 40¢ | $600 | $555 | -$37.5 | 50% 144-142 (286) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Ignacio Buseavg 36¢ | $810 | $455.98 | +$22.5 | 58% 40340-29132 (69472) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Ignacio Buseavg 37¢ | $35.35 | $35.35 | -$0.48 | 58% 27838-20469 (48307) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.