Guayaquil: Alan Magadan vs Tristan McCormick

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Tristan McCormick (20%) · Tristan McCormick at 56¢ · $576 held · ends Nov 2

Alan Magadan44¢Tristan McCormick56¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tristan McCormick

Consensus Traders

Tristan McCormick 20%

Total Value

$576.46

Combined PnL

-$29.89

Research grade

NeutralTristan McCormick at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tristan McCormick

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alan Magadan44%

Tristan McCormick56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tristan McCormick1 trader

Total Value$274.15

Total Shares498

Combined PnL+$6.2

Alan Magadan4 traders

Total Value$302.31

Total Shares684

Combined PnL-$36.09

Tristan McCormick — 20%Alan Magadan — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Tristan McCormickavg 54.2¢	$267.95	$274.15	+$6.2	58% 39876-28789 (68665)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Alan Magadanavg 47.5¢	$162.91	$150.92	-$11.99	57% 27287-20178 (47465)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 53¢	$97.86	$81.25	-$16.62	52% 270-247 (517)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 47.7¢	$58.03	$54.74	-$3.28	62% 13556-8378 (21934)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Alan Magadanavg 56¢	$19.6	$15.4	-$4.2	56% 6768-5418 (12186)

VeryLucky888

Tristan McCormick

Invested

$267.95

Value

$274.15

PnL

+$6.2

Record

58%

39876-28789 (68665)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Alan Magadan

Invested

$162.91

Value

$150.92

PnL

-$11.99

Record

57%

27287-20178 (47465)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$97.86

Value

$81.25

PnL

-$16.62

Record

52%

270-247 (517)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$58.03

Value

$54.74

PnL

-$3.28

Record

62%

13556-8378 (21934)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Alan Magadan

Invested

$19.6

Value

$15.4

PnL

-$4.2

Record

56%

6768-5418 (12186)

Research grade

NeutralTristan McCormick at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Tristan McCormick

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tristan McCormick wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.