Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Tomas Machac, while the market favors Alex de Minaur (69%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Erste Bank Open: Tomas Machac vs Alex de Minaur

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Tomas Machac (100%) · Tomas Machac at 32¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2

Tomas Machac32¢Alex de Minaur68¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Tomas Machac

Consensus Traders

Tomas Machac 100%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$244.36

Smart Money Entry

31.2¢ → 31.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateTomas Machac at 32%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Machac

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Alex de Minaur 69%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tomas Machac32%

Alex de Minaur69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tomas Machac8 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares14,661

Combined PnL-$244.36

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SineNooneEICTR	Tomas Machacavg 31.3¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$167.9	55% 900-736 (1636)
K5 k56CTR	Tomas Machacavg 31¢	$750	$713.71	-$36.29	58% 879-648 (1527)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Tomas Machacavg 31¢	$599.61	$570.6	-$29.01	62% 13301-8165 (21466)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Tomas Machacavg 31¢	$214.28	$203.91	-$10.37	49% 3492-3599 (7091)
PL pltrkr111CTR<$100	Tomas Machacavg 30¢	$99.75	$98.09	-$1.66	55% 692-571 (1263)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Tomas Machacavg 31¢	$32.24	$32.76	+$0.52	54% 2850-2423 (5273)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Tomas Machacavg 31¢	$10.85	$11.03	+$0.18	57% 23972-18438 (42410)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Tomas Machacavg 29¢	$10.73	$10.92	+$0.18	60% 39473-26004 (65477)

SineNooneEICTR

Tomas Machac

Invested

$2,854.52

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$167.9

Record

55%

900-736 (1636)

k56CTR

Tomas Machac

Invested

$750

Value

$713.71

PnL

-$36.29

Record

58%

879-648 (1527)

LilybaeumCTR

Tomas Machac

Invested

$599.61

Value

$570.6

PnL

-$29.01

Record

62%

13301-8165 (21466)

NotradecopyCTR

Tomas Machac

Invested

$214.28

Value

$203.91

PnL

-$10.37

Record

49%

3492-3599 (7091)

pltrkr111CTR<$100

Tomas Machac

Invested

$99.75

Value

$98.09

PnL

-$1.66

Record

55%

692-571 (1263)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Tomas Machac

Invested

$32.24

Value

$32.76

PnL

+$0.52

Record

54%

2850-2423 (5273)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Tomas Machac

Invested

$10.85

Value

$11.03

PnL

+$0.18

Record

57%

23972-18438 (42410)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Tomas Machac

Invested

$10.73

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$0.18

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

Research grade

Research candidateTomas Machac at 32%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Machac

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Alex de Minaur 69%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tomas Machac wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.