Sioux Falls: Timo Legout vs Andrew Fenty

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Timo Legout (42%) · Timo Legout at 56¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 2

Timo Legout56¢Andrew Fenty44¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Timo Legout

Consensus Traders

Timo Legout 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 55.5¢

-15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTimo Legout at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timo Legout

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Timo Legout56%

Andrew Fenty45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timo Legout5 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares17,123

Combined PnL-$741.41

Andrew Fenty7 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares9,475

Combined PnL-$643.98

Timo Legout — 42%Andrew Fenty — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Timo Legoutavg 64.5¢	$10.2K	$9.5K	-$656.86	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
RN1CTR	Andrew Fentyavg 39¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$278.35	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
HO HomeRunHazard	Timo Legoutavg 81.4¢	$909.62	$827.97	-$81.65	54% 15672-13125 (28797)
EF efntrickCTR	Andrew Fentyavg 32.1¢	$787.77	$498.33	-$289.44	48% 3573-3824 (7397)
GH ghostorderCTR	Andrew Fentyavg 39¢	$565.5	$485.75	-$79.75	62% 4196-2587 (6783)
0X 0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793	Timo Legoutavg 67¢	$451.52	$448.15	-$3.37	60% 135-90 (225)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Andrew Fentyavg 17.1¢	$134.63	$228.1	+$93.46	53% 13206-11687 (24893)
└ Andrew Fenty leg	Andrew Fentyavg 17.1¢	$92.87	$181.81	+$88.94
└ Timo Legout leg	Timo Legoutavg 60¢	$41.77	$46.29	+$4.52
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Andrew Fentyavg 33¢	$75.24	$77.61	+$2.37	50% 17615-17950 (35565)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Andrew Fentyavg 33¢	$77.33	$76	+$1.21	58% 37843-27569 (65412)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Andrew Fentyavg 33¢	$55.44	$56.28	+$0.84	56% 24841-19200 (44041)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Andrew Fentyavg 39.9¢	$17.74	$11.27	-$0.85	60% 3825-2595 (6420)
TRCM<$100	Timo Legoutavg 68¢	$10.63	$10.39	-$0.23	56% 3881-3108 (6989)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Timo Legoutavg 61¢	$7.83	$8.53	+$0.71	58% 18001-13242 (31243)

UpTheBlues

Timo Legout

Invested

$10,183.78

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$656.86

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

RN1CTR

Andrew Fenty

Invested

$1,973.79

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$278.35

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

HomeRunHazard

Timo Legout

Invested

$909.62

Value

$827.97

PnL

-$81.65

Record

54%

15672-13125 (28797)

efntrickCTR

Andrew Fenty

Invested

$787.77

Value

$498.33

PnL

-$289.44

Record

48%

3573-3824 (7397)

ghostorderCTR

Andrew Fenty

Invested

$565.5

Value

$485.75

PnL

-$79.75

Record

62%

4196-2587 (6783)

0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793

Timo Legout

Invested

$451.52

Value

$448.15

PnL

-$3.37

Record

60%

135-90 (225)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Andrew Fenty

Invested

$134.63

Value

$228.1

PnL

+$93.46

Record

53%

13206-11687 (24893)

Both legs:

Andrew Fenty$92.8717.1¢+$88.94

Timo Legout$41.7760¢+$4.52

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Andrew Fenty

Invested

$75.24

Value

$77.61

PnL

+$2.37

Record

50%

17615-17950 (35565)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Andrew Fenty

Invested

$77.33

Value

$76

PnL

+$1.21

Record

58%

37843-27569 (65412)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Andrew Fenty

Invested

$55.44

Value

$56.28

PnL

+$0.84

Record

56%

24841-19200 (44041)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Andrew Fenty

Invested

$17.74

Value

$11.27

PnL

-$0.85

Record

60%

3825-2595 (6420)

TRCM<$100

Timo Legout

Invested

$10.63

Value

$10.39

PnL

-$0.23

Record

56%

3881-3108 (6989)

BillBenter2026<$100

Timo Legout

Invested

$7.83

Value

$8.53

PnL

+$0.71

Record

58%

18001-13242 (31243)

Research grade

NeutralTimo Legout at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Timo Legout

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timo Legout wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.