Swiss Indoors Basel: Jerome Kym vs Arthur Rinderknech
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jerome Kym (40%) · Jerome Kym at 52¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Jerome Kym
5
Jerome Kym 40%
$6.7K
-$17.54
52.8¢ → 51.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralJerome Kym at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Jerome Kym. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Jerome Kymavg 52.8¢ | $4.3K | $4.2K | -$102.19 | 58% 39876-28789 (68665) |
AL alvahunterCTR | Arthur Rinderknechavg 48¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$15.63 | 40% 19-29 (48) |
K5 k56CTR | Arthur Rinderknechavg 45¢ | $855 | $921.5 | +$66.5 | 58% 881-651 (1532) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Jerome Kymavg 52¢ | $43.68 | $43.26 | -$0.42 | 56% 6768-5418 (12186) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Arthur Rinderknechavg 45¢ | $37.8 | $40.74 | +$2.94 | 57% 27287-20178 (47465) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$4,296.33
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$102.19
Record
58%
39876-28789 (68665)
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$15.63
Record
40%
19-29 (48)
Invested
$855
Value
$921.5
PnL
+$66.5
Record
58%
881-651 (1532)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$43.68
Value
$43.26
PnL
-$0.42
Record
56%
6768-5418 (12186)
Invested
$37.8
Value
$40.74
PnL
+$2.94
Record
57%
27287-20178 (47465)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.