Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jonah Braswell, while the market favors Spencer Johnson (85%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sioux Falls: Spencer Johnson vs Jonah Braswell

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jonah Braswell (63%) · Jonah Braswell at 16¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1

Spencer Johnson85¢Jonah Braswell15¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jonah Braswell

Consensus Traders

Jonah Braswell 63%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$13.5

Smart Money Entry

27.1¢ → 15.5¢

-43% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidJonah Braswell at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jonah Braswell

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Spencer Johnson 85%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spencer Johnson85%

Jonah Braswell16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jonah Braswell5 traders

Total Value$801.37

Total Shares2,967

Combined PnL-$2.44

Spencer Johnson3 traders

Total Value$576.56

Total Shares823

Combined PnL-$11.05

Jonah Braswell — 63%Spencer Johnson — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Jonah Braswell. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJonah Braswell 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedJonah Braswell 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jonah Braswell 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Jonah Braswellavg 27¢	$540	$540	-$0	47% 2015-2254 (4269)
OL oliverea	Spencer Johnsonavg 70¢	$509.85	$506.35	-$3.5	58% 271-193 (464)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jonah Braswellavg 27¢	$202.5	$202.5	-$0	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Spencer Johnsonavg 84¢	$70.98	$63.38	-$7.61	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jonah Braswellavg 28¢	$37.24	$35.91	-$1.33	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
RN1CTR<$100	Jonah Braswellavg 29¢	$20.16	$19.11	-$1.04	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Spencer Johnsonavg 69¢	$6.79	$6.84	+$0.05	55% 1306-1048 (2354)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Jonah Braswellavg 28¢	$3.92	$3.85	-$0.07	55% 12164-10045 (22209)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Jonah Braswell

Invested

$540

Value

$540

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2015-2254 (4269)

oliverea

Spencer Johnson

Invested

$509.85

Value

$506.35

PnL

-$3.5

Record

58%

271-193 (464)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jonah Braswell

Invested

$202.5

Value

$202.5

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

UpTheBlues<$100

Spencer Johnson

Invested

$70.98

Value

$63.38

PnL

-$7.61

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jonah Braswell

Invested

$37.24

Value

$35.91

PnL

-$1.33

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

RN1CTR<$100

Jonah Braswell

Invested

$20.16

Value

$19.11

PnL

-$1.04

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Spencer Johnson

Invested

$6.79

Value

$6.84

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

1306-1048 (2354)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Jonah Braswell

Invested

$3.92

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0.07

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

Research grade

AvoidJonah Braswell at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Jonah Braswell

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Spencer Johnson 85%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Jonah Braswell. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJonah Braswell 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedJonah Braswell 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jonah Braswell 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jonah Braswell wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.