Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Spencer Johnson, while the market favors Tomasz Berkieta (90%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sioux Falls: Spencer Johnson vs Tomasz Berkieta

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Spencer Johnson (50%) · Spencer Johnson at 10.0¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 2

Spencer Johnson10¢Tomasz Berkieta90¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spencer Johnson

Consensus Traders

Spencer Johnson 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.7K

Combined PnL

$5.1K

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 10¢

-85% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpencer Johnson at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spencer Johnson

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Tomasz Berkieta 90%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spencer Johnson10%

Tomasz Berkieta90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spencer Johnson5 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares22,913

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Tomasz Berkieta5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,104

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Spencer Johnson — 50%Tomasz Berkieta — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Spencer Johnson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Tomasz Berkieta) and the top 1000 (6 on Spencer Johnson) disagree here.

whaleTomasz Berkieta 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpSpencer Johnson 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpencer Johnson 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTomasz Berkieta 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Spencer Johnson 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Spencer Johnsonavg 61.9¢	$10.0K	$13.6K	+$3.6K	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
FeedTheBigBirdCTR	Spencer Johnsonavg 73.6¢	$7.4K	$8.2K	+$837.72	51% 32-31 (63)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Spencer Johnsonavg 71.7¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$106.66	53% 13206-11687 (24893)
└ Spencer Johnson leg	Spencer Johnsonavg 71.7¢	$3.7K	$2.4K	$-1.2K
└ Tomasz Berkieta leg	Tomasz Berkietaavg 21.3¢	$921.4	$2.3K	+$1.4K
EF efntrickARB<$100	Spencer Johnsonavg 69.3¢	$2.6K	$2.1K	-$542.02	48% 3573-3824 (7397)
└ Tomasz Berkieta leg	Tomasz Berkietaavg 56.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$74.14
└ Spencer Johnson leg	Spencer Johnsonavg 69.3¢	$1.4K	$820.49	-$616.16
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Spencer Johnsonavg 89.5¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$138.08	54% 15672-13125 (28797)
└ Spencer Johnson leg	Spencer Johnsonavg 89.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$120.31
└ Tomasz Berkieta leg	Tomasz Berkietaavg 18.8¢	$418.35	$400.58	-$17.77
RN1	Tomasz Berkietaavg 26.5¢	$450.79	$1.5K	+$1.0K	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
VeryLucky888	Tomasz Berkietaavg 26.5¢	$21.35	$362.5	+$341.15	58% 37843-27569 (65412)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Spencer Johnsonavg 73.4¢	$399.69	$275.16	-$124.52	60% 28436-19256 (47692)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Spencer Johnsonavg 34.3¢	$777.1	$147.39	-$629.72	60% 3825-2595 (6420)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Tomasz Berkietaavg 11.1¢	$52.99	$85.87	+$32.87	50% 17615-17950 (35565)
poshposh<$100	Tomasz Berkietaavg 30.9¢	$6.58	$12.27	+$5.68	61% 8687-5628 (14315)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Spencer Johnsonavg 77.1¢	$6.74	$11.27	+$4.53	55% 2171-1792 (3963)
TRCM<$100	Tomasz Berkietaavg 22.7¢	$3.49	$2.77	-$0.72	56% 3881-3108 (6989)

UpTheBluesCTR

Spencer Johnson

Invested

$10,019.74

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

FeedTheBigBirdCTR

Spencer Johnson

Invested

$7,361.35

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$837.72

Record

51%

32-31 (63)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Spencer Johnson

Invested

$4,614.68

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$106.66

Record

53%

13206-11687 (24893)

Both legs:

Spencer Johnson$3,693.2871.7¢$-1.2K

Tomasz Berkieta$921.421.3¢+$1.4K

efntrickARB<$100

Spencer Johnson

Invested

$2,615.09

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$542.02

Record

48%

3573-3824 (7397)

Both legs:

Tomasz Berkieta$1,178.4456.9¢+$74.14

Spencer Johnson$1,436.6469.3¢-$616.16

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Spencer Johnson

Invested

$1,860.25

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$138.08

Record

54%

15672-13125 (28797)

Both legs:

Spencer Johnson$1,441.989.5¢-$120.31

Tomasz Berkieta$418.3518.8¢-$17.77

RN1

Tomasz Berkieta

Invested

$450.79

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

VeryLucky888

Tomasz Berkieta

Invested

$21.35

Value

$362.5

PnL

+$341.15

Record

58%

37843-27569 (65412)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Spencer Johnson

Invested

$399.69

Value

$275.16

PnL

-$124.52

Record

60%

28436-19256 (47692)

thestingsnakeCTR

Spencer Johnson

Invested

$777.1

Value

$147.39

PnL

-$629.72

Record

60%

3825-2595 (6420)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Tomasz Berkieta

Invested

$52.99

Value

$85.87

PnL

+$32.87

Record

50%

17615-17950 (35565)

poshposh<$100

Tomasz Berkieta

Invested

$6.58

Value

$12.27

PnL

+$5.68

Record

61%

8687-5628 (14315)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Spencer Johnson

Invested

$6.74

Value

$11.27

PnL

+$4.53

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

TRCM<$100

Tomasz Berkieta

Invested

$3.49

Value

$2.77

PnL

-$0.72

Record

56%

3881-3108 (6989)

Research grade

AvoidSpencer Johnson at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Spencer Johnson

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Tomasz Berkieta 90%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Spencer Johnson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Tomasz Berkieta) and the top 1000 (6 on Spencer Johnson) disagree here.

whaleTomasz Berkieta 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpSpencer Johnson 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpencer Johnson 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTomasz Berkieta 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Spencer Johnson 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spencer Johnson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.4%

10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$774.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

874.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.