Seoul: Yeonsu Jeong vs Yunseong Chung

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yunseong Chung (50%) · Yunseong Chung at 68¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2

Yeonsu Jeong33¢Yunseong Chung67¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yunseong Chung

Consensus Traders

Yunseong Chung 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$76.7

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 67.5¢

-12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYunseong Chung at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yunseong Chung

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yeonsu Jeong33%

Yunseong Chung68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yeonsu Jeong4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,338

Combined PnL+$84.08

Yunseong Chung4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,435

Combined PnL-$7.37

Yeonsu Jeong — 50%Yunseong Chung — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Yeonsu Jeongavg 47¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$177.47	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
└ Yeonsu Jeong leg	Yeonsu Jeongavg 47¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$287.89
└ Yunseong Chung leg	Yunseong Chungavg 45.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$110.42
EF efntrickARB<$100	Yeonsu Jeongavg 36¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$117.96	48% 3516-3772 (7288)
└ Yunseong Chung leg	Yunseong Chungavg 49.1¢	$508.82	$699.83	+$191.01
└ Yeonsu Jeong leg	Yeonsu Jeongavg 36¢	$759.67	$686.61	-$73.06
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yeonsu Jeongavg 57¢	$844.29	$836.89	-$7.41	50% 16195-16429 (32624)
UP UpTheBlues	Yunseong Chungavg 75.3¢	$490.22	$494.85	+$4.63	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Yunseong Chungavg 76¢	$379.91	$377.41	-$2.5	62% 24131-14569 (38700)
RN1CTR	Yeonsu Jeongavg 24.6¢	$152.68	$244.76	+$92.08	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
0xheavy888	Yunseong Chungavg 83¢	$120.18	$120.13	-$0.05	55% 6546-5254 (11800)
TH thestingsnake	Yunseong Chungavg 77.5¢	$127.39	$98.94	-$9.45	60% 3676-2486 (6162)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yeonsu Jeongavg 17.3¢	$40.23	$39.52	-$0.72	62% 12964-7822 (20786)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yeonsu Jeongavg 22¢	$1.11	$1.23	+$0.12	56% 1934-1543 (3477)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Yeonsu Jeong

Invested

$2,365.24

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$177.47

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

Both legs:

Yeonsu Jeong$1,182.7747¢+$287.89

Yunseong Chung$1,182.4845.8¢-$110.42

efntrickARB<$100

Yeonsu Jeong

Invested

$1,268.48

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$117.96

Record

48%

3516-3772 (7288)

Both legs:

Yunseong Chung$508.8249.1¢+$191.01

Yeonsu Jeong$759.6736¢-$73.06

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yeonsu Jeong

Invested

$844.29

Value

$836.89

PnL

-$7.41

Record

50%

16195-16429 (32624)

UpTheBlues

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$490.22

Value

$494.85

PnL

+$4.63

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$379.91

Value

$377.41

PnL

-$2.5

Record

62%

24131-14569 (38700)

RN1CTR

Yeonsu Jeong

Invested

$152.68

Value

$244.76

PnL

+$92.08

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

0xheavy888

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$120.18

Value

$120.13

PnL

-$0.05

Record

55%

6546-5254 (11800)

thestingsnake

Yunseong Chung

Invested

$127.39

Value

$98.94

PnL

-$9.45

Record

60%

3676-2486 (6162)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yeonsu Jeong

Invested

$40.23

Value

$39.52

PnL

-$0.72

Record

62%

12964-7822 (20786)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yeonsu Jeong

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.12

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

Research grade

NeutralYunseong Chung at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yunseong Chung

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yunseong Chung wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.