Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jang-Jun Kim, while the market favors Billy Harris (66%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Seoul: Jang-Jun Kim vs Billy Harris

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jang-Jun Kim (57%) · Jang-Jun Kim at 35¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3

Jang-Jun Kim35¢Billy Harris65¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jang-Jun Kim

Consensus Traders

Jang-Jun Kim 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$36.46

Smart Money Entry

41.7¢ → 34.5¢

-17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralJang-Jun Kim at 35%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jang-Jun Kim

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Billy Harris 66%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jang-Jun Kim35%

Billy Harris66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jang-Jun Kim4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,034

Combined PnL-$8.49

Billy Harris3 traders

Total Value$556.72

Total Shares887

Combined PnL+$44.95

Jang-Jun Kim — 57%Billy Harris — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Billy Harrisavg 69.3¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$43.56	53% 12837-11424 (24261)
└ Jang-Jun Kim leg	Jang-Jun Kimavg 32.4¢	$974.9	$1.4K	+$395.57
└ Billy Harris leg	Billy Harrisavg 69.3¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$352.01
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Jang-Jun Kimavg 41.3¢	$631.69	$604.75	-$26.95	60% 3737-2531 (6268)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Jang-Jun Kimavg 45.1¢	$544.47	$537.24	-$7.22	55% 14758-12309 (27067)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Billy Harrisavg 54.9¢	$497.64	$523.62	+$25.98	48% 3551-3797 (7348)
└ Billy Harris leg	Billy Harrisavg 54.9¢	$346.44	$318.52	-$27.93
└ Jang-Jun Kim leg	Jang-Jun Kimavg 36.5¢	$151.19	$205.1	+$53.9
RN1	Billy Harrisavg 54¢	$227.34	$256.81	+$29.47	54% 50820-42775 (93595)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Jang-Jun Kimavg 38¢	$291.41	$207.61	+$4.31	52% 529-488 (1017)
└ Jang-Jun Kim leg	Jang-Jun Kimavg 38¢	$108.72	$118.75	+$17.2
└ Billy Harris leg	Billy Harrisavg 67¢	$101.75	$88.86	-$12.89
NA NatoAlfista	Billy Harrisavg 59¢	$159.89	$158.54	-$1.35	50% 3521-3537 (7058)
BI BillBenter2026	Billy Harrisavg 63.9¢	$124.54	$141.38	+$16.84	58% 17314-12719 (30033)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Jang-Jun Kimavg 30¢	$61.58	$80.05	+$18.47	62% 13301-8165 (21466)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jang-Jun Kimavg 31¢	$27.9	$35.1	+$7.2	57% 23972-18438 (42410)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$2,624.28

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$43.56

Record

53%

12837-11424 (24261)

Both legs:

Jang-Jun Kim$974.932.4¢+$395.57

Billy Harris$1,649.3969.3¢-$352.01

thestingsnakeCTR

Jang-Jun Kim

Invested

$631.69

Value

$604.75

PnL

-$26.95

Record

60%

3737-2531 (6268)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Jang-Jun Kim

Invested

$544.47

Value

$537.24

PnL

-$7.22

Record

55%

14758-12309 (27067)

efntrickARB<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$497.64

Value

$523.62

PnL

+$25.98

Record

48%

3551-3797 (7348)

Both legs:

Billy Harris$346.4454.9¢-$27.93

Jang-Jun Kim$151.1936.5¢+$53.9

RN1

Billy Harris

Invested

$227.34

Value

$256.81

PnL

+$29.47

Record

54%

50820-42775 (93595)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Jang-Jun Kim

Invested

$291.41

Value

$207.61

PnL

+$4.31

Record

52%

529-488 (1017)

Both legs:

Jang-Jun Kim$108.7238¢+$17.2

Billy Harris$101.7567¢-$12.89

NatoAlfista

Billy Harris

Invested

$159.89

Value

$158.54

PnL

-$1.35

Record

50%

3521-3537 (7058)

BillBenter2026

Billy Harris

Invested

$124.54

Value

$141.38

PnL

+$16.84

Record

58%

17314-12719 (30033)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Jang-Jun Kim

Invested

$61.58

Value

$80.05

PnL

+$18.47

Record

62%

13301-8165 (21466)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jang-Jun Kim

Invested

$27.9

Value

$35.1

PnL

+$7.2

Record

57%

23972-18438 (42410)

Research grade

NeutralJang-Jun Kim at 35%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jang-Jun Kim

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Billy Harris 66%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jang-Jun Kim wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.