Seoul: Shintaro Imai vs Yun-Seong Chung

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yun-Seong Chung (38%) · Yun-Seong Chung at 86¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3

Shintaro Imai14¢Yun-Seong Chung86¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yun-Seong Chung

Consensus Traders

Yun-Seong Chung 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$17.49

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 85.5¢

+21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYun-Seong Chung at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yun-Seong Chung

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Shintaro Imai14%

Yun-Seong Chung86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yun-Seong Chung3 traders

Total Value$519.93

Total Shares715

Combined PnL+$12.9

Shintaro Imai5 traders

Total Value$359.34

Total Shares897

Combined PnL+$4.59

Yun-Seong Chung — 38%Shintaro Imai — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Yun-Seong Chungavg 76¢	$345.9	$364	+$18.1	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 41.2¢	$596.22	$311.79	-$18.57	60% 3868-2622 (6490)
└ Shintaro Imai leg	Shintaro Imaiavg 41.2¢	$218.09	$161.32	-$49.3
└ Yun-Seong Chung leg	Yun-Seong Chungavg 53.4¢	$115.58	$150.47	+$30.73
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 26.2¢	$396.77	$261.39	-$135.38	59% 43578-30037 (73615)
└ Shintaro Imai leg	Shintaro Imaiavg 26.2¢	$333.77	$184.44	-$149.33
└ Yun-Seong Chung leg	Yun-Seong Chungavg 70¢	$63	$76.95	+$13.95
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Shintaro Imaiavg 43¢	$209.45	$169.43	-$40.02	52% 13438-12293 (25731)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yun-Seong Chungavg 62¢	$137.63	$133.19	-$4.44	49% 18284-18729 (37013)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Shintaro Imaiavg 37.3¢	$107.23	$115.06	+$7.83	62% 13564-8385 (21949)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 38¢	$54.34	$57.2	+$2.86	57% 27306-20190 (47496)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yun-Seong Chungavg 62¢	$23.49	$22.74	-$0.76	58% 39913-28822 (68735)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Shintaro Imaiavg 41.3¢	$501.06	$12.87	+$34.16	56% 1771-1386 (3157)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 42¢	$5.03	$4.79	-$0.24	48% 3590-3842 (7432)

HomeRunHazard

Yun-Seong Chung

Invested

$345.9

Value

$364

PnL

+$18.1

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$596.22

Value

$311.79

PnL

-$18.57

Record

60%

3868-2622 (6490)

Both legs:

Shintaro Imai$218.0941.2¢-$49.3

Yun-Seong Chung$115.5853.4¢+$30.73

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$396.77

Value

$261.39

PnL

-$135.38

Record

59%

43578-30037 (73615)

Both legs:

Shintaro Imai$333.7726.2¢-$149.33

Yun-Seong Chung$6370¢+$13.95

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$209.45

Value

$169.43

PnL

-$40.02

Record

52%

13438-12293 (25731)

omnibus-076daa

Yun-Seong Chung

Invested

$137.63

Value

$133.19

PnL

-$4.44

Record

49%

18284-18729 (37013)

LilybaeumCTR

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$107.23

Value

$115.06

PnL

+$7.83

Record

62%

13564-8385 (21949)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$54.34

Value

$57.2

PnL

+$2.86

Record

57%

27306-20190 (47496)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yun-Seong Chung

Invested

$23.49

Value

$22.74

PnL

-$0.76

Record

58%

39913-28822 (68735)

SchruteBucksCTR

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$501.06

Value

$12.87

PnL

+$34.16

Record

56%

1771-1386 (3157)

efntrickCTR<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$5.03

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$0.24

Record

48%

3590-3842 (7432)

Research grade

NeutralYun-Seong Chung at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yun-Seong Chung

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yun-Seong Chung wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.