Ningbo: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Keegan Smith

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Keegan Smith (50%) · Keegan Smith at 79¢ · $874 held · ends Nov 3

Yu-Hsiou Hsu22¢Keegan Smith78¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Keegan Smith

Consensus Traders

Keegan Smith 50%

Total Value

$874.33

Combined PnL

-$92.74

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 78.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralKeegan Smith at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Keegan Smith

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yu-Hsiou Hsu22%

Keegan Smith79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Keegan Smith4 traders

Total Value$638.71

Total Shares770

Combined PnL-$5.97

Yu-Hsiou Hsu4 traders

Total Value$235.62

Total Shares1,293

Combined PnL-$86.77

Keegan Smith — 50%Yu-Hsiou Hsu — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EF efntrick	Keegan Smithavg 77.7¢	$499.62	$514.34	+$14.73	48% 3590-3842 (7432)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 23¢	$286.08	$182.45	-$86.17	60% 3868-2622 (6490)
BI BillBenter2026	Keegan Smithavg 81.4¢	$130.1	$108.01	-$22.09	58% 18257-13418 (31675)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 49¢	$40.67	$40.25	-$0.42	50% 3633-3602 (7235)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 40¢	$12	$12.45	+$0.45	56% 6781-5428 (12209)
VeryLucky888<$100	Keegan Smithavg 58¢	$13.39	$10.52	+$0.14	58% 39913-28822 (68735)
PA pauleta23<$100	Keegan Smithavg 46¢	$4.59	$5.84	+$1.25	67% 22976-11372 (34348)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 44¢	$1.1	$0.46	-$0.64	54% 2345-1973 (4318)

efntrick

Keegan Smith

Invested

$499.62

Value

$514.34

PnL

+$14.73

Record

48%

3590-3842 (7432)

thestingsnakeCTR

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$286.08

Value

$182.45

PnL

-$86.17

Record

60%

3868-2622 (6490)

BillBenter2026

Keegan Smith

Invested

$130.1

Value

$108.01

PnL

-$22.09

Record

58%

18257-13418 (31675)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$40.67

Value

$40.25

PnL

-$0.42

Record

50%

3633-3602 (7235)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$12

Value

$12.45

PnL

+$0.45

Record

56%

6781-5428 (12209)

VeryLucky888<$100

Keegan Smith

Invested

$13.39

Value

$10.52

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

39913-28822 (68735)

pauleta23<$100

Keegan Smith

Invested

$4.59

Value

$5.84

PnL

+$1.25

Record

67%

22976-11372 (34348)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.64

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

Research grade

NeutralKeegan Smith at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Keegan Smith

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Keegan Smith wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.