Seoul: Seong-Chan Hong vs Yibing Wu

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yibing Wu (57%) · Yibing Wu at 57¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 3

Seong-Chan Hong43¢Yibing Wu57¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yibing Wu

Consensus Traders

Yibing Wu 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$689.04

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 57.5¢

-15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYibing Wu at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yibing Wu

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Seong-Chan Hong43%

Yibing Wu57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yibing Wu4 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares6,179

Combined PnL-$637.36

Seong-Chan Hong3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,454

Combined PnL-$51.68

Yibing Wu — 57%Seong-Chan Hong — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yibing Wu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yibing Wu) and the top 1000 (4 on Seong-Chan Hong) disagree here.

whaleYibing Wu 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYibing Wu 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYibing Wu 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seong-Chan Hong 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yibing Wuavg 70.5¢	$3.8K	$3.1K	-$684.57	59% 44203-30575 (74778)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Yibing Wuavg 55¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$119.13	48% 3599-3846 (7445)
└ Yibing Wu leg	Yibing Wuavg 55¢	$877.28	$901.33	+$24.05
└ Seong-Chan Hong leg	Seong-Chan Hongavg 37.9¢	$640.14	$735.21	+$95.07
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Yibing Wuavg 64¢	$994.37	$966.64	-$27.73	54% 16692-14013 (30705)
└ Yibing Wu leg	Yibing Wuavg 64¢	$778.38	$638.46	-$139.92
└ Seong-Chan Hong leg	Seong-Chan Hongavg 31.3¢	$215.99	$328.19	+$112.2
TRCMCTR	Seong-Chan Hongavg 49¢	$833.35	$739.81	-$93.54	55% 3888-3118 (7006)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Seong-Chan Hongavg 28.7¢	$443.69	$425	-$18.69	52% 13458-12308 (25766)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yibing Wuavg 46¢	$319.19	$392.05	+$72.86	49% 18371-18801 (37172)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Seong-Chan Hongavg 48.4¢	$246.44	$245.96	-$0.48	60% 3875-2632 (6507)
└ Seong-Chan Hong leg	Seong-Chan Hongavg 48.4¢	$159.7	$156.67	-$3.03
└ Yibing Wu leg	Yibing Wuavg 51¢	$86.74	$89.29	+$2.55
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100	Seong-Chan Hongavg 23.7¢	$61.15	$98.7	+$60.55	53% 565-507 (1072)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yibing Wuavg 74.7¢	$85.89	$60.38	-$25.52	58% 18283-13435 (31718)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yibing Wuavg 82¢	$21.57	$23.42	-$0.13	58% 40340-29132 (69472)

UpTheBlues

Yibing Wu

Invested

$3,780.8

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$684.57

Record

59%

44203-30575 (74778)

efntrickARB<$100

Yibing Wu

Invested

$1,517.41

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$119.13

Record

48%

3599-3846 (7445)

Both legs:

Yibing Wu$877.2855¢+$24.05

Seong-Chan Hong$640.1437.9¢+$95.07

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Yibing Wu

Invested

$994.37

Value

$966.64

PnL

-$27.73

Record

54%

16692-14013 (30705)

Both legs:

Yibing Wu$778.3864¢-$139.92

Seong-Chan Hong$215.9931.3¢+$112.2

TRCMCTR

Seong-Chan Hong

Invested

$833.35

Value

$739.81

PnL

-$93.54

Record

55%

3888-3118 (7006)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Seong-Chan Hong

Invested

$443.69

Value

$425

PnL

-$18.69

Record

52%

13458-12308 (25766)

omnibus-076daa

Yibing Wu

Invested

$319.19

Value

$392.05

PnL

+$72.86

Record

49%

18371-18801 (37172)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Seong-Chan Hong

Invested

$246.44

Value

$245.96

PnL

-$0.48

Record

60%

3875-2632 (6507)

Both legs:

Seong-Chan Hong$159.748.4¢-$3.03

Yibing Wu$86.7451¢+$2.55

1lovejumpCTR<$100

Seong-Chan Hong

Invested

$61.15

Value

$98.7

PnL

+$60.55

Record

53%

565-507 (1072)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yibing Wu

Invested

$85.89

Value

$60.38

PnL

-$25.52

Record

58%

18283-13435 (31718)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yibing Wu

Invested

$21.57

Value

$23.42

PnL

-$0.13

Record

58%

40340-29132 (69472)

Research grade

NeutralYibing Wu at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yibing Wu

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yibing Wu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yibing Wu) and the top 1000 (4 on Seong-Chan Hong) disagree here.

whaleYibing Wu 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYibing Wu 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYibing Wu 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seong-Chan Hong 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yibing Wu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.