Seoul: August Holmgren vs Jay Dylan Friend

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jay Dylan Friend (75%) · Jay Dylan Friend at 100¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 3

August Holmgren<1¢Jay Dylan Friend>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jay Dylan Friend

Consensus Traders

Jay Dylan Friend 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

$81.29

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJay Dylan Friend at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jay Dylan Friend

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

August Holmgren0%

Jay Dylan Friend100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jay Dylan Friend6 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares12,990

Combined PnL+$80.4

August Holmgren2 traders

Total Value$6.3

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$0.89

Jay Dylan Friend — 75%August Holmgren — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Jay Dylan Friend. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJay Dylan Friend 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJay Dylan Friend 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedJay Dylan Friend 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jay Dylan Friend 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Jay Dylan Friendavg 82.8¢	$8.9K	$8.8K	-$114.6	59% 43578-30037 (73615)
HO HomeRunHazard	Jay Dylan Friendavg 78.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$158.29	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Jay Dylan Friendavg 80¢	$1.8K	$702.99	+$26.6	48% 3590-3842 (7432)
└ Jay Dylan Friend leg	Jay Dylan Friendavg 80¢	$464	$461.1	-$2.9
└ August Holmgren leg	August Holmgrenavg 18¢	$212.39	$241.89	+$29.5
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Jay Dylan Friendavg 77¢	$172.64	$180.75	+$8.1	52% 13438-12293 (25731)
└ Jay Dylan Friend leg	Jay Dylan Friendavg 77¢	$90.56	$96.44	+$5.88
└ August Holmgren leg	August Holmgrenavg 17.5¢	$82.09	$84.31	+$2.22
1L 1lovejump	Jay Dylan Friendavg 73.5¢	$261.54	$151.1	+$24.9	53% 559-502 (1061)
TH thestingsnake	Jay Dylan Friendavg 76.3¢	$124.35	$133.66	+$9.31	60% 3868-2622 (6490)
VeryLucky888<$100	Jay Dylan Friendavg 56¢	$43.54	$63.75	+$0.39	58% 39913-28822 (68735)
0xheavy888<$100	Jay Dylan Friendavg 57¢	$5.46	$7.57	+$2.11	56% 6781-5428 (12209)
poshposhCTR<$100	August Holmgrenavg 18¢	$5.4	$5.4	+$0	61% 8896-5797 (14693)
RN1CTR<$100	August Holmgrenavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.9	+$0.89	54% 54957-46919 (101876)

UpTheBlues

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$8,890.02

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$114.6

Record

59%

43578-30037 (73615)

HomeRunHazard

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$1,557.18

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$158.29

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

efntrickARB<$100

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$1,759.95

Value

$702.99

PnL

+$26.6

Record

48%

3590-3842 (7432)

Both legs:

Jay Dylan Friend$46480¢-$2.9

August Holmgren$212.3918¢+$29.5

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$172.64

Value

$180.75

PnL

+$8.1

Record

52%

13438-12293 (25731)

Both legs:

Jay Dylan Friend$90.5677¢+$5.88

August Holmgren$82.0917.5¢+$2.22

1lovejump

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$261.54

Value

$151.1

PnL

+$24.9

Record

53%

559-502 (1061)

thestingsnake

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$124.35

Value

$133.66

PnL

+$9.31

Record

60%

3868-2622 (6490)

VeryLucky888<$100

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$43.54

Value

$63.75

PnL

+$0.39

Record

58%

39913-28822 (68735)

0xheavy888<$100

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$5.46

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$2.11

Record

56%

6781-5428 (12209)

poshposhCTR<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

8896-5797 (14693)

RN1CTR<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.89

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

Research grade

NeutralJay Dylan Friend at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Jay Dylan Friend

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Jay Dylan Friend. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJay Dylan Friend 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJay Dylan Friend 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedJay Dylan Friend 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jay Dylan Friend 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jay Dylan Friend wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.