Brest: Calvin Hemery vs Robin Catry

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Robin Catry (40%) · Robin Catry at 100¢ · $67K held · ends Nov 2

Calvin Hemery<1¢Robin Catry>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Robin Catry

Consensus Traders

Robin Catry 40%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$67.1K

Combined PnL

$16.4K

Smart Money Entry

38.1¢ → 100¢

+163% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralRobin Catry at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Robin Catry

4 of 10 top traders (40%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Calvin Hemery0%

Robin Catry100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Robin Catry4 traders

Total Value$43.4K

Total Shares44,715

Combined PnL+$17.0K

Calvin Hemery6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,922

Combined PnL-$524.56

Robin Catry — 40%Calvin Hemery — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Robin Catryavg 37.9¢	$26.3K	$43.3K	+$17.0K	60% 39756-26331 (66087)
RN1ARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 64¢	$10.4K	$9.1K	$-1.2K	54% 51398-43356 (94754)
└ Robin Catry leg	Robin Catryavg 84.1¢	$6.5K	$7.0K	+$493.22
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 64¢	$14.6K	$2.2K	$-1.7K
EF efntrickARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 56.3¢	$7.2K	$6.9K	-$246.42	48% 3562-3815 (7377)
└ Robin Catry leg	Robin Catryavg 44.8¢	$2.9K	$3.7K	+$809
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 56.3¢	$4.3K	$3.3K	$-1.1K
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 77.7¢	$5.8K	$4.4K	$-1.3K	53% 13155-11641 (24796)
└ Robin Catry leg	Robin Catryavg 33.7¢	$1.4K	$3.3K	+$1.9K
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 77.7¢	$4.4K	$1.1K	$-3.3K
0X 0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793CTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 58¢	$956.42	$882.22	-$74.2	54% 216-182 (398)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041ARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 41¢	$3.1K	$810.81	$-1.8K	59% 175-121 (296)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 41¢	$2.3K	$638.02	$-1.6K
└ Robin Catry leg	Robin Catryavg 13.8¢	$26.94	$172.8	-$144.18
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 83.4¢	$1.1K	$604.67	-$452	60% 3792-2562 (6354)
tradecraftCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 72¢	$307.96	$399.92	+$91.96	52% 5717-5329 (11046)
HRTradingCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 64.2¢	$321.68	$279.14	-$42.54	55% 2151-1765 (3916)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 11.4¢	$253.82	$211.07	-$42.75	49% 17262-17622 (34884)
latvian.demon<$100	Robin Catryavg 91¢	$100	$99.45	-$0.55	53% 575-504 (1079)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Robin Catryavg 50.4¢	$57.71	$53.28	-$4.44	63% 26596-15784 (42380)
TRCMCTR<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 45.1¢	$9.23	$4.2	-$5.03	56% 3870-3084 (6954)
SC SchruteBucks	Robin Catryavg 60.1¢	$123.95	$3.7	-$4.39	56% 1762-1373 (3135)

UpTheBlues

Robin Catry

Invested

$26,282.03

Value

$43.3K

PnL

+$17.0K

Record

60%

39756-26331 (66087)

RN1ARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$10,358.33

Value

$9.1K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

51398-43356 (94754)

Both legs:

Robin Catry$6,468.6784.1¢+$493.22

Calvin Hemery$14,626.2764¢$-1.7K

efntrickARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$7,171.85

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$246.42

Record

48%

3562-3815 (7377)

Both legs:

Robin Catry$2,857.5344.8¢+$809

Calvin Hemery$4,314.3256.3¢$-1.1K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$5,767.34

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

13155-11641 (24796)

Both legs:

Robin Catry$1,390.9633.7¢+$1.9K

Calvin Hemery$4,376.3777.7¢$-3.3K

0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793CTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$956.42

Value

$882.22

PnL

-$74.2

Record

54%

216-182 (398)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041ARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$3,134.56

Value

$810.81

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

59%

175-121 (296)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$2,273.6541¢$-1.6K

Robin Catry$26.9413.8¢-$144.18

thestingsnakeCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$1,056.66

Value

$604.67

PnL

-$452

Record

60%

3792-2562 (6354)

tradecraftCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$307.96

Value

$399.92

PnL

+$91.96

Record

52%

5717-5329 (11046)

HRTradingCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$321.68

Value

$279.14

PnL

-$42.54

Record

55%

2151-1765 (3916)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$253.82

Value

$211.07

PnL

-$42.75

Record

49%

17262-17622 (34884)

latvian.demon<$100

Robin Catry

Invested

$100

Value

$99.45

PnL

-$0.55

Record

53%

575-504 (1079)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Robin Catry

Invested

$57.71

Value

$53.28

PnL

-$4.44

Record

63%

26596-15784 (42380)

TRCMCTR<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$9.23

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$5.03

Record

56%

3870-3084 (6954)

SchruteBucks

Robin Catry

Invested

$123.95

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$4.39

Record

56%

1762-1373 (3135)

Research grade

NeutralRobin Catry at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Robin Catry

4 of 10 top traders (40%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Robin Catry wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.