Seoul: Lloyd Harris vs Juncheng Shang
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lloyd Harris (60%) · Lloyd Harris at 63¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Lloyd Harris
5
Lloyd Harris 60%
$4.4K
-$20.81
62.7¢ → 62.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLloyd Harris at 63%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Lloyd Harris. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 88M | Lloyd Harrisavg 62.8¢ | $4.2K | $4.2K | -$20.75 | 42% 682-934 (1616) |
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041<$100 | Lloyd Harrisavg 59¢ | $66.86 | $71.4 | +$0.57 | 59% 166-115 (281) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Juncheng Shangavg 37¢ | $62.16 | $63 | +$0.84 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Juncheng Shangavg 37¢ | $38.85 | $39.38 | +$0.52 | 56% 6455-5169 (11624) |
 noosh3<$100 | Lloyd Harrisavg 60.6¢ | $33.43 | $34.75 | -$1.99 | 51% 196-188 (384) |
88MInvested
$4,222.42
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$20.75
Record
42%
682-934 (1616)
Invested
$66.86
Value
$71.4
PnL
+$0.57
Record
59%
166-115 (281)
Invested
$62.16
Value
$63
PnL
+$0.84
Record
54%
14164-11846 (26010)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$38.85
Value
$39.38
PnL
+$0.52
Record
56%
6455-5169 (11624)
noosh3<$100Invested
$33.43
Value
$34.75
PnL
-$1.99
Record
51%
196-188 (384)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.