Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Michael Geerts, while the market favors Niels McDonald (56%). 10 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Brest: Michael Geerts vs Niels McDonald

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Michael Geerts (71%) · Michael Geerts at 44¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2

Michael Geerts44¢Niels McDonald56¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michael Geerts

Consensus Traders

Michael Geerts 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$8.09

Smart Money Entry

41.8¢ → 43.5¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichael Geerts at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Geerts

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Niels McDonald 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Michael Geerts44%

Niels McDonald56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Niels McDonald4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,615

Combined PnL-$46.83

Michael Geerts10 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,114

Combined PnL+$38.74

Niels McDonald — 29%Michael Geerts — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EF efntrickARB<$100	Niels McDonaldavg 59.1¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$58.89	48% 3550-3797 (7347)
└ Niels McDonald leg	Niels McDonaldavg 59.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$53.18
└ Michael Geerts leg	Michael Geertsavg 34.5¢	$430.37	$542.45	+$112.08
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Niels McDonaldavg 59¢	$875	$793.97	-$81.03	59% 171-121 (292)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Michael Geertsavg 39¢	$570.19	$646	+$75.81	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Michael Geertsavg 38.3¢	$541.35	$530.66	-$10.69	55% 14758-12308 (27066)
RN1CTR	Michael Geertsavg 59¢	$469.21	$381.73	-$87.48	54% 50818-42773 (93591)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Michael Geertsavg 33.6¢	$274.19	$367.19	+$93.01	53% 12836-11423 (24259)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Niels McDonaldavg 67¢	$335	$332.5	-$2.5	51% 1086-1046 (2132)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Niels McDonaldavg 57¢	$300	$323.68	+$23.68	53% 2599-2307 (4906)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Michael Geertsavg 30¢	$168.05	$141.75	+$19.3	60% 3737-2530 (6267)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR	Michael Geertsavg 53.7¢	$145.7	$115.26	-$30.44	49% 321-338 (659)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Niels McDonaldavg 64.1¢	$129.37	$113.03	-$16.34	58% 17313-12718 (30031)
└ Niels McDonald leg	Niels McDonaldavg 64.1¢	$101.63	$89.54	-$12.09
└ Michael Geerts leg	Michael Geertsavg 51.4¢	$27.74	$23.49	-$4.25
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Michael Geertsavg 51.9¢	$133.14	$111.63	-$21.51	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Niels McDonaldavg 39.6¢	$41.51	$54.53	+$13.02	57% 23971-18438 (42409)
poshposhCTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 40¢	$9.88	$10.99	+$1.11	44% 2201-2835 (5036)
0X 0x1111111111CTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 38¢	$6.08	$5.44	-$0.64	63% 1650-986 (2636)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 39¢	$1.17	$1.44	+$0.27	55% 2063-1679 (3742)

efntrickARB<$100

Niels McDonald

Invested

$1,620.03

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$58.89

Record

48%

3550-3797 (7347)

Both legs:

Niels McDonald$1,189.6659.1¢-$53.18

Michael Geerts$430.3734.5¢+$112.08

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Niels McDonald

Invested

$875

Value

$793.97

PnL

-$81.03

Record

59%

171-121 (292)

UpTheBluesCTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$570.19

Value

$646

PnL

+$75.81

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$541.35

Value

$530.66

PnL

-$10.69

Record

55%

14758-12308 (27066)

RN1CTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$469.21

Value

$381.73

PnL

-$87.48

Record

54%

50818-42773 (93591)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$274.19

Value

$367.19

PnL

+$93.01

Record

53%

12836-11423 (24259)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Niels McDonald

Invested

$335

Value

$332.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

1086-1046 (2132)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Niels McDonald

Invested

$300

Value

$323.68

PnL

+$23.68

Record

53%

2599-2307 (4906)

thestingsnakeCTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$168.05

Value

$141.75

PnL

+$19.3

Record

60%

3737-2530 (6267)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$145.7

Value

$115.26

PnL

-$30.44

Record

49%

321-338 (659)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Niels McDonald

Invested

$129.37

Value

$113.03

PnL

-$16.34

Record

58%

17313-12718 (30031)

Both legs:

Niels McDonald$101.6364.1¢-$12.09

Michael Geerts$27.7451.4¢-$4.25

omnibus-076daaCTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$133.14

Value

$111.63

PnL

-$21.51

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Niels McDonald

Invested

$41.51

Value

$54.53

PnL

+$13.02

Record

57%

23971-18438 (42409)

poshposhCTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$9.88

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$1.11

Record

44%

2201-2835 (5036)

0x1111111111CTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$6.08

Value

$5.44

PnL

-$0.64

Record

63%

1650-986 (2636)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0.27

Record

55%

2063-1679 (3742)

Research grade

NeutralMichael Geerts at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Geerts

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Niels McDonald 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michael Geerts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.