Erste Bank Open: Arthur Fery vs Jacob Fearnley

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jacob Fearnley (29%) · Jacob Fearnley at 55¢ · $46K held · ends Nov 2

Arthur Fery46¢Jacob Fearnley54¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jacob Fearnley

Consensus Traders

Jacob Fearnley 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.5K

Combined PnL

-$567.65

Smart Money Entry

55.2¢ → 54.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralJacob Fearnley at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jacob Fearnley

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Arthur Fery46%

Jacob Fearnley55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jacob Fearnley2 traders

Total Value$28.2K

Total Shares51,811

Combined PnL-$355.14

Arthur Fery5 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares38,999

Combined PnL-$212.51

Jacob Fearnley — 29%Arthur Fery — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Jacob Fearnley. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArthur Fery 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpJacob Fearnley 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrArthur Fery 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedArthur Fery 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Arthur Fery 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI viper0310	Jacob Fearnleyavg 55.2¢	$28.4K	$28.1K	-$371.31	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Arthur Feryavg 44.5¢	$14.4K	$14.3K	-$153.68	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
RN1CTR	Arthur Feryavg 45¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$50	54% 50818-42773 (93591)
SA Saber-greedCTR	Arthur Feryavg 44.9¢	$418.75	$409.93	-$8.83	59% 2406-1669 (4075)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Jacob Fearnleyavg 50¢	$147.06	$163.24	+$16.18	49% 321-338 (659)
ReformedxCTR	Arthur Feryavg 44¢	$138.44	$138.44	-$0	53% 744-665 (1409)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Arthur Feryavg 47.9¢	$135.89	$135.94	+$0.05	57% 23971-18438 (42409)
└ Arthur Fery leg	Arthur Feryavg 47.9¢	$86.76	$79.64	-$7.12
└ Jacob Fearnley leg	Jacob Fearnleyavg 48.9¢	$49.13	$56.3	+$7.17
poshposhCTR	Arthur Feryavg 44¢	$132	$132	-$0	44% 2201-2835 (5036)

viper0310

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$28,448.11

Value

$28.1K

PnL

-$371.31

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$14,432.93

Value

$14.3K

PnL

-$153.68

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

RN1CTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$2,250

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$50

Record

54%

50818-42773 (93591)

Saber-greedCTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$418.75

Value

$409.93

PnL

-$8.83

Record

59%

2406-1669 (4075)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$147.06

Value

$163.24

PnL

+$16.18

Record

49%

321-338 (659)

ReformedxCTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$138.44

Value

$138.44

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

744-665 (1409)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Arthur Fery

Invested

$135.89

Value

$135.94

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

23971-18438 (42409)

Both legs:

Arthur Fery$86.7647.9¢-$7.12

Jacob Fearnley$49.1348.9¢+$7.17

poshposhCTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$132

Value

$132

PnL

-$0

Record

44%

2201-2835 (5036)

Research grade

NeutralJacob Fearnley at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Jacob Fearnley

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Jacob Fearnley. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArthur Fery 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpJacob Fearnley 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrArthur Fery 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedArthur Fery 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Arthur Fery 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jacob Fearnley wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.