Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kilian Feldbausch, while the market favors Tom Paris (76%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Brest: Kilian Feldbausch vs Tom Paris

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kilian Feldbausch (38%) · Kilian Feldbausch at 25¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2

Kilian Feldbausch25¢Tom Paris75¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kilian Feldbausch

Consensus Traders

Kilian Feldbausch 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$82.59

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 24.5¢

-54% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidKilian Feldbausch at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Tom Paris 76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kilian Feldbausch25%

Tom Paris76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kilian Feldbausch3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,580

Combined PnL+$121.41

Tom Paris5 traders

Total Value$516.52

Total Shares938

Combined PnL-$38.82

Kilian Feldbausch — 38%Tom Paris — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EF efntrickARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 56.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$28.83	48% 3567-3817 (7384)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 56.5¢	$1.0K	$863.34	-$185.18
└ Tom Paris leg	Tom Parisavg 36.6¢	$338.47	$494.82	+$156.35
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Kilian Feldbauschavg 60.5¢	$880.11	$807.2	-$72.91	53% 13162-11646 (24808)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 43.1¢	$727.43	$729.28	+$1.85	54% 15456-12940 (28396)
└ Tom Paris leg	Tom Parisavg 53.5¢	$356.55	$449.69	+$93.14
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 43.1¢	$370.88	$279.58	-$91.3
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Kilian Feldbauschavg 43¢	$478.61	$673.03	+$194.42	60% 39852-26467 (66319)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Tom Parisavg 64¢	$340.2	$281.73	-$58.47	59% 175-122 (297)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Tom Parisavg 42.4¢	$344.09	$224.86	+$81.01	60% 3805-2576 (6381)
└ Tom Paris leg	Tom Parisavg 42.4¢	$109.24	$127.44	+$74.26
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 47¢	$90.67	$97.42	+$6.75
BI BillBenter2026	Tom Parisavg 54.8¢	$141.48	$145.77	+$4.29	58% 17805-13089 (30894)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Tom Parisavg 52¢	$44.7	$55.45	+$10.75	50% 17388-17711 (35099)
tradecraft<$100	Tom Parisavg 50¢	$20.6	$25.03	+$4.43	52% 5759-5374 (11133)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 57¢	$12.54	$12.44	-$0.1	55% 2155-1770 (3925)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Tom Parisavg 66¢	$8.36	$8.55	+$0.19	62% 1668-1044 (2712)

efntrickARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$1,386.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$28.83

Record

48%

3567-3817 (7384)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$1,048.5256.5¢-$185.18

Tom Paris$338.4736.6¢+$156.35

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$880.11

Value

$807.2

PnL

-$72.91

Record

53%

13162-11646 (24808)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$727.43

Value

$729.28

PnL

+$1.85

Record

54%

15456-12940 (28396)

Both legs:

Tom Paris$356.5553.5¢+$93.14

Kilian Feldbausch$370.8843.1¢-$91.3

UpTheBluesCTR

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$478.61

Value

$673.03

PnL

+$194.42

Record

60%

39852-26467 (66319)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Tom Paris

Invested

$340.2

Value

$281.73

PnL

-$58.47

Record

59%

175-122 (297)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Tom Paris

Invested

$344.09

Value

$224.86

PnL

+$81.01

Record

60%

3805-2576 (6381)

Both legs:

Tom Paris$109.2442.4¢+$74.26

Kilian Feldbausch$90.6747¢+$6.75

BillBenter2026

Tom Paris

Invested

$141.48

Value

$145.77

PnL

+$4.29

Record

58%

17805-13089 (30894)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Tom Paris

Invested

$44.7

Value

$55.45

PnL

+$10.75

Record

50%

17388-17711 (35099)

tradecraft<$100

Tom Paris

Invested

$20.6

Value

$25.03

PnL

+$4.43

Record

52%

5759-5374 (11133)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$12.54

Value

$12.44

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

2155-1770 (3925)

0x1111111111<$100

Tom Paris

Invested

$8.36

Value

$8.55

PnL

+$0.19

Record

62%

1668-1044 (2712)

Research grade

AvoidKilian Feldbausch at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Tom Paris 76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kilian Feldbausch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.