Sioux Falls: Sebastian Dominko vs Benjamin Willwerth

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Sebastian Dominko (55%) · Sebastian Dominko at 67¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 2

Sebastian Dominko67¢Benjamin Willwerth33¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sebastian Dominko

Consensus Traders

Sebastian Dominko 55%

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

-$705.81

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 67¢

-8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Dominko at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Dominko

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sebastian Dominko67%

Benjamin Willwerth33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sebastian Dominko6 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares15,198

Combined PnL-$865.61

Benjamin Willwerth5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares7,320

Combined PnL+$159.8

Sebastian Dominko — 55%Benjamin Willwerth — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Dominko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBenjamin Willwerth 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSebastian Dominko 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedBenjamin Willwerth 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Benjamin Willwerth 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FeedTheBigBird	Sebastian Dominkoavg 67¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	+$0	51% 32-31 (63)
UP UpTheBlues	Sebastian Dominkoavg 81.5¢	$2.8K	$2.3K	-$494.88	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
RN1CTR	Benjamin Willwerthavg 33¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
HO HomeRunHazard	Sebastian Dominkoavg 90.1¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$317.58	54% 16108-13511 (29619)
VeryLucky888CTR	Benjamin Willwerthavg 33.3¢	$395.22	$391.5	+$14.07	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
EF efntrickCTR	Benjamin Willwerthavg 18¢	$232.58	$372.18	+$139.6	48% 3580-3827 (7407)
TH thestingsnake	Sebastian Dominkoavg 83.6¢	$230.71	$184.73	-$45.98	60% 3831-2599 (6430)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Benjamin Willwerthavg 33¢	$48.84	$48.84	+$2.22	57% 26839-19987 (46826)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 90¢	$24.3	$18.08	-$6.22	58% 18071-13305 (31376)
TRCMCTR<$100	Benjamin Willwerthavg 14¢	$2.87	$6.78	+$3.91	56% 3882-3112 (6994)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 86¢	$4.3	$3.35	-$0.95	56% 1769-1383 (3152)

FeedTheBigBird

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$6,695.77

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

32-31 (63)

UpTheBlues

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$2,772.68

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$494.88

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

RN1CTR

Benjamin Willwerth

Invested

$1,650

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

HomeRunHazard

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$1,401.51

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$317.58

Record

54%

16108-13511 (29619)

VeryLucky888CTR

Benjamin Willwerth

Invested

$395.22

Value

$391.5

PnL

+$14.07

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

efntrickCTR

Benjamin Willwerth

Invested

$232.58

Value

$372.18

PnL

+$139.6

Record

48%

3580-3827 (7407)

thestingsnake

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$230.71

Value

$184.73

PnL

-$45.98

Record

60%

3831-2599 (6430)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Benjamin Willwerth

Invested

$48.84

Value

$48.84

PnL

+$2.22

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

BillBenter2026<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$24.3

Value

$18.08

PnL

-$6.22

Record

58%

18071-13305 (31376)

TRCMCTR<$100

Benjamin Willwerth

Invested

$2.87

Value

$6.78

PnL

+$3.91

Record

56%

3882-3112 (6994)

SchruteBucks<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$4.3

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.95

Record

56%

1769-1383 (3152)

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Dominko at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Dominko

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Dominko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBenjamin Willwerth 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSebastian Dominko 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedBenjamin Willwerth 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Benjamin Willwerth 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sebastian Dominko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.0%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.